Housing bubble
26-Mar-05
FYI, Nouriel Roubini at NYU's Stern School of business has lot's of housing bubble links online…
A Series of Unfortunate Events
26-Mar-05
Via :
—
I love dollar theaters. Or in this case, a “buck-fifty” theater. I went to the grand re-opening of the Carmike Blue Ridge 14 tonight. It's been closed since I moved here, undergoing reconstruction due to a fire. Saw “Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events”. I enjoyed the movie. The set's were absolutely gorgeous (one of the reasons I wanted to see it in the theater). The actors playing the Baudelaire children were superb, and Jim Carrey was his usual uncannily capable ham. Yet it didn't emotionally connect with me. I think they tried to fit too much into a single movie — the movie conglomerates three of the books in the series into a single movie. As a result, you barely get to know the side characters before they're killed off. I think that it would've been more successful had they adapted one book at a time, as in the Harry Potter series.
The hills are alive….
26-Mar-05
I want to make movies like the Sound of Music.
Happy movies, full of life and music. Movies that people would watch over and over again, just because they make them feel good.
Yet my brain, as it so often does, conspires against me.
You see, all I can think of are rather morbid horror flicks. To wit:
Concept: A stop motion animated film about a beloved cat that get's hit by a car, and comes back as a demonic zombie. Only instead of using a puppet cat, use a real road-kill cat that progressively decays over the course of the movie. The free PETA publicity would guarantee a box office hit.
Concept: A debt-collector tries to collect on a Visa bill run up by a serial killer. The serial killer gets so pissed, he hunts down the debt-collector instead.
Concept: A group of soliders are injected with advanced experimental nanobots. The nanobots can rapidly repair gaping unshot wounds. However, they also use a tremendous amount of energy, and unless the soliders eat almost constantly, they get hungry. Very hungry. Did I mention they get stranded in the desert? Plus, if a soldier gets wounded too much, the nanobots start making mistakes…
Concept: It's the midterm future, and humans have evolved into DI's, distributed intelligences. A DI is a loosely cohesive intelligence (a “hive”) spread among multiple physical entities (e.g. advanced robots). One of the DI's in the protagonist's hive becomes suicidal, and tries to kill off the rest of the hive. Hijinks ensue.
Sigh. Maybe I should write a musical? A heart-warming zombie musical. Screaming in the Rain? The Embalmer on the Roof?
I bet Julie Andrews would sign up for the “The Sound of Zombies.”
How sees the U.S.
25-Mar-05
This is awesome. I had no idea North Carolina was known for its water.
Badnarik in Raleigh
25-Mar-05
Spent most of my day training my intern, Justin. He's smart, and hardworking. I hope that he doesn't get bored and leave soon. Want to know why there's so much bad customer service? Boredom. Anyone smart enough to be competent is likely to get bored with most customer service jobs. So they find other jobs, leaving behind the incompetents.
After work, I went to the weekly Libertarian meeting held at Tir Na Nog in Raleigh. I was surprised to see so many people there — probably 20 – 22 people in all. Wait a minute…is that Michael Badnarik? Yep, there he was, dressed in a white dress shirt, dark pants and an American flag tie.
Tonight was apparently the Wake County Libertarian Party convention. Badnarik spoke briefly, typical stuff — Libertarians must change their emphasis from individual freedom to individual responsiblity, we must build the party, blah, blah. I felt increasing irritation as he spoke. What's the point? So we can win 1.0% of the vote again?
They then elected Party officers. Or rather, they cajoled some of the people present to be party officers. The chair seemed so happy to find people willing to be the Secretary and Treasurer. I probably could've won, had I offered to run, and it was only my second meeting.
I got to meet some cool people though. I had a long conversation with Chris Struyk. He had been quite active in the LP, and had served as a Director for the Free Nation Foundation. He introduced me to Roy Underhill, who apparently knew Murray Rothbard. So I guess I have a Rothbard number of 2 now.
I also met a couple, John and Elise, who came to see Badnarik speak. John works for an OEM manufacturer of chips that go into digital cameras and other devices. Elise was a webmaster for Cisco — she's currently looking for a new job. John grew up in Birmingham, AL, Elise grew up in Wilmington, AL. Both seemed wellspoken, intelligent, and attractive. I hope they come to future meetings.
I wish I could remember conversations better, so I could post witty snippets to my LJ. Unfortunately, I'd probably have to write them down immediately, which would interfere with the conversation itself.
Reno 911 Cops Bust a D&D game gone awry… (Windows media file.)
If You're Paying, I'll Have Top Sirloin
21-Mar-05
Via Cafe Hayek
http://www.invisibleheart.com/Iheart/PolicySirloin.html
May 18, 1995
From the Wall Street Journal, 5-18-95, Reprinted in The Libertarian Reader, David Boaz, editor, Free Press, 1997
If You're Paying, I'll Have Top Sirloin
by Russell Roberts
As Congress prepares to try to cut spending, I am reminded of an evening last fall at the St. Louis Repertory Theater, our local company. Before the curtain rose, the company's director appeared and encouraged us to vote against a ballot proposition to limit state taxes. He feared it would lead to reduced funding for the company.
I turned to the woman sitting next to me and asked her if she felt guilty knowing that her ticket was subsidized by some farmer in the “boot-heel” of Missouri. No, she answered, he's probably getting something, too. She seemed to be implying that somehow, it all evened out.
I left her alone, but I wanted to say, no it doesn't even out. If it “evened out” for everybody, then government spending would really be depressing: all that money shuffled around, all those people working at the IRS, all those marginal tax rates discouraging work effort just to get everybody to get the same deal.
Here in St. Louis we recently completed Metrolink, a light rail system. It cost $380 million to build. We locals contributed zero out of pocket. It was paid for by the rest of the country. Shouldn't we feel guilty making people in Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine pay for our trips to the hockey arena downtown? No, say the beneficiaries. After all, we paid for BART in San Francisco and MARTA in Atlanta and all the other extraordinarily expensive, underutilized public transportation systems whose benefits fall far short of their costs. It's only fair we get our turn at the trough.
This destructive justification reminds me of a very strange restaurant.
When you eat there, you usually spend about $6—you have a sandwich, some fries and a drink. Of course you'd also enjoy dessert and a second drink, but that costs an additional $4. The extra food isn't worth $4 to you, so you stick with the $6 meal.
Sometimes, you go to the same restaurant with three friends. The four of you are in the habit of splitting the check evenly. You realize after a while that the $4 drink and dessert will end up costing you only $1, because the total tab is split four ways. Should you order the drink and dessert? If you're a nice person, you might want to spare your friends from having to subsidize your extravagance. Then it dawns on you that they may be ordering extras financed out of your pocket. But they're your friends. They wouldn't do that to you and you wouldn't do that to them. And if anyone tries it among the group, social pressure will keep things under control.
But now suppose the tab is split not at each table but across the 100 diners that evening across all the tables. Now adding the $4 drink and dessert costs only 4¢. Splurging is easy to justify now. In fact you won't just add a drink and dessert; you'll upgrade to the steak and add a bottle of wine. Suppose you and everyone else each orders $40 worth of food. The tab for the entire restaurant will be $4000. Divided by the 100 diners, your bill comes to $40. Here is the irony. Like my neighbor at the theater, you'll get your “fair share.” The stranger at the restaurant a few tables over pays for your meal, but you also help subsidize his. It all “evens out.”
But this outcome is a disaster. When you dine alone, you spend $6. The extra $34 of steak and other treats are not worth it. But in competition with the others, you've chosen a meal far out of your price range whose enjoyment falls far short of its cost.
Self-restraint goes unrewarded. If you go back to ordering your $6 meal in hopes of saving money, your tab will be close to $40 anyway unless the other 99 diners cut back also. The good citizen feels like a chump.
And so we read of the freshman Congressman who comes to Congress eager to cut pork out of the budget but in trouble back home because local projects will also come under the knife. Instead of being proud to lead the way, he is forced to fight for those projects to make sure his district gets its “fair share.”
Matters get much worse when there are gluttons and drunkards at the restaurant mixing with dieters and teetotalers. The average tab might be $40, but some are eating $80 worth of food while others are stuck with a salad and an iced tea.
Those with modest appetites would like to flee the smorgasbord, but suppose it's the only restaurant in town and you are forced to eat there every night. Resentment and anger come naturally. And being the only restaurant in town, you can imagine the quality of the service.
Such a restaurant can be a happy place if the light eaters enjoy watching the gluttony of those who eat and drink with gusto. Many government programs generate a comparable wide range of support. But many do not. How many Americans other than farmers benefit from the farm subsidy programs? How many Americans other than train riders derive benefit from the Amtrak subsidy?
People who are overeating at the expense of others should be ashamed. That shame will return when others are forced to cut back too. This requires deep cuts and an end to the government smorgasbord where the few benefit at the expense of the many.
http://www.canoe.ca/Travel/Europe/UK-Ireland/2004/01/20/319087.html
Living With Strangers: A Freeloader's Tale
By RYAN MCLAUGHLIN — Special to Canoe Travel
Every time I tell a new traveller that I've just finished trekking around the United Kingdom and Ireland for two months and haven't paid a thing for accommodations, most stare at me blankly, at least until the “what's the catch” look begins to seep in.
“No, no, seriously,” I've said countless times, but still they are suspicious. Granted they've just met me and don't know me from Adam, or Ted for that matter.
So what's my secret? Do I have countless friends scattered throughout the world that don't mind my imprint on their couch – sadly, no (or at least didn't at the outset of my journey).
What I do have is access to a computer, an e-mail address, an open mind and a lack of desire to spend most my trip staying in overpriced hostels. Oh yeah, I don't have a heck of a lot of money either – and that can prove to be a hefty motivator to find cheap alternatives to anything.
While cruising the Web, doing prep work for a five month trip that would very nearly circumnavigate the globe, I stumbled across a scant message that simply said, “You guys ever heard of a site called Globalfreeloaders.com?” To which I could only say, “No.” (But I didn't reply that, I mean, what would be the point?).
So, with a quick click of the mouse and a sip of my cold 2 a.m. coffee, I was off to see this Globalfreeloaders. I mean, I wasn't a freeloader, but I was game to find out who, or what, was.
The site is the brainchild of Adam Staines, an Australian who a few years back was stuck without accommodations in Morocco, but was offered a free bed by a kind local. That moment and the week that followed gave him a direct infusion into Moroccan life that would have been missed in a hostel or hotel, and it also gave him the resolve to create an online community that would help others do the same thing.
“I'd just spent a couple of years doing the 'Aussie backpacker in London' thing – using the city as a base to travel fairly extensively around Europe – and I could pretty much count on two hands the number of European friends I'd made,” he explained. “I had befriended hundreds of antipodeans and North Americans, but rarely came close to actual locals.”
“From personal experience, I knew that when on the road it was extremely common for travellers to bunk down with friends of friends (of friends of friends, etc.), so why not organize and extend that circle a little?”
Amelie and myself out for dinner with two of her friends in Paris. — Photo by Ryan Mclaughlin
And so he did.
And so it was that I was staring at the front page of his site, as speculative of the idea as could be. “Do I sign up? What if they just sell my e-mail to a bunch of 'adult' Web sites? Sure it says 'free' but I bet they'll want some money at some point.”
My mind was swimming with untrusting questions, as my mom had firmly entrenched in my cerebral cortex that nothing, and she meant NOTHING, came for free in this world.
So, with her words echoing through my notoriously thick and bumpy skull, I read everything on the site, all the testimonials, any small print I could find, even the little part at the bottom of the page that says it's all copywritten. Hordes of users had written great stuff about the service, so I figured what the heck, I'll give it a go (incidently the same methodology that got me selling Amway products a few years back).
Upon sign-up you are given access to a simple search tool that lets you quickly locate all the Globalfreeloaders (or GFLers) in the city you are looking to visit.
Inverness sits at the mouth of one of the world's most infamous lakes, Loch Ness. — Photo by Ryan Mclaughlin
After selecting a city, you simply browse through a list of members, along with their name, age, sex and what they have to offer (i.e. a bed, a couch, a spot on the floor, a place for a tent, etc.). You select whom you like and then write an introductory message to them to sort of sell yourself on why you are a nice, interesting person that they'd want to have in their home.
After repeating this process for a couple cities I wanted to visit in the UK, I sat back and waited.
While awaiting responses, I started bragging to friends and family about the concept and though most were intrigued, they all, with few exceptions, said, “But who would just let some stranger come stay with them – I mean think about the security issue, it could be anyone!”
This resistance is something that Adam explained as pretty common. “The notion of inviting complete strangers into your home doesn't sit well with everyone. It's to be expected – especially in a world where the media is constantly portraying the evils of society, because sadly that's what sells.
I find it is the people that have travelled and seen and experienced first-hand the small kindnesses that people are prepared to offer complete strangers that are most prepared to embrace the site's concept.”
My London host, Maryann waxes breakfast philosophy on her flat's balcony overlooking beautiful South Kensington. — Photo by Ryan Mclaughlin
Ironically, this was not the case for me; with more than half my hosts, I was their first GFLer. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Putting aside the comments of naysayers, I patiently continued to check my e-mail. Some people responded saying that they were happy to share some inside info with me, but couldn't host me at the moment.
But a few said that they'd be happy to host me. And so it was that I finally began adding direction to my trip. Only knowing that I wanted to travel around, I decided to base where to go on where I could stay with GFLers.
I found MaryAnn in London, who took me to Greenwich Village; Dani in Manchester, who happened to be an expatriat from near my home town in Canada; Barbara in Glasgow, who taught me what a hot toddy and The Office was; Simon in Inverness, who was FULL of usefull touristy information and cooked me haggis; Tori in Edinburgh, who got me a free ticket to a musical and introduced me to the city's nightlife; Joey in Dublin, who skipped the formalities and took me straight to the pub for a proper Guinness; and Amelie in Paris, who acquainted me with French cheese, which smells remarkebly like dirty feet.
Though it has been harder to find an abundance of Globalfreeloaders in continental Europe, the expense it saved me while in the UK has allowed me the ability to travel further than I had ever expected – never mind the opportunities and experiences I've had directly because I was staying with someone that lived there, and not just scratching my head wondering where to go and what to do with a bunch of other backpackers at a hostel or hotel.
The remains of a bottle of Champagne, discarded at the base of the Eiffel Tower. — Photo by Ryan Mclaughlin
Because I tell this story to virtually all travellers I meet, and I still get a lot of resistance to the idea (Honestly people, there are still good people in this world, have faith), I took this opportunity to ask Adam what to say to them to put their fears to rest: “I think the proof is in the pudding. The site has been running for several years now, without major incident. In that time many friends have been made, romances blossomed (there are at least three married couples, that I'm aware of, that were introduced through the site), much money saved and I think the world has been made a slightly friendlier, more educated place.”
Now I haven't been entirely honest, there is a catch. By signing up to the site you have to be open to the idea of hosting those travellers that have decided your home city is worth visiting.
This isn't to say that you have any contractual agreement to say yes to every wayward traveller that sends you an e-mail through the site, you just need to consider it.
In my opinion having someone from another country come stay with you is the closest you can get to travelling, without even getting off the couch.
Well, this now-confessed Freeloader is off to Florence to visit a couple of GFLers just south of the city. It is a little known ancient proverb that says, “Staying in Tuscany is magical, but staying in Tuscany for free is brilliant.”
Who will be eaten first?
20-Mar-05
Church girls into freaky sex
19-Mar-05
“…teens pledging virginity until marriage are more likely to have oral and anal sex…”
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2005/03/18/national/a115514S47.DTL&type=printable
Study: Abstinence May Lead to Risky Acts
- By MATT APUZZO, Associated Press Writer
Friday, March 18, 2005
(03-18) 14:50 PST New Haven, Conn. (AP) –
Teens who pledge to remain virgins until marriage are more likely to take chances with other kinds of sex that increase the risk of sexually transmitted diseases, a study of 12,000 adolescents suggests.
The report by Yale and Columbia University researchers could help explain their earlier findings that teens who pledged abstinence are just as likely to have STDs as their peers.
The latest study, published in the April issue of the Journal of Adolescent Health, found that teens pledging virginity until marriage are more likely to have oral and anal sex than other teens who have not had intercourse. That behavior, however, “puts you at risk,” said Hannah Brueckner, assistant professor of sociology at Yale and one of the study's authors.
Among virgins, boys who have pledged abstinence were four times more likely to have had anal sex, according to the study. Overall, pledgers were six times more likely to have oral sex than teens who have remained abstinent but not as part of a pledge.
The pledging group was also less likely to use condoms during their first sexual experience or get tested for STDs, the researchers found.
Data for the study was taken from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. An in-school questionnaire was given to a nationally representative sample of students in grades 7-12 and followed up with a series of in-home interviews roughly one, two, and six years later. It was funded in part by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Leslee Unruh, president of the National Abstinence Clearinghouse in Sioux Falls, S.D., called the study “bogus,” disputing that those involved had pledged true “abstinence.”
“Kids who pledge abstinence are taught that any word that has 'sex' in it is considered a sexual activity,” Unruh said. “Therefore oral sex is sex, and they are staying away.”
Millions of teens have signed written pledges or verbally promised to abstain from sex, part of a church-led effort to discourage premarital sex and the spread of disease. President Bush has boosted funding for abstinence-only education in schools.
Critics say that education needs to be coupled with safe-sex education to be effective.
“If adolescents only had sex in monogamous, married relationships, by definition there would be no STDs,” Brueckner said, echoing President Bush's remarks in last year's State of the Union address. “But the majority of adolescents don't live like that. They do have sex.”
Last year, the same research team found that 88 percent of teens who pledge abstinence end up having sex before marriage, compared with 99 percent of teens who do not make a pledge.
___
On the Net:
Journal of Adolescent Health:
National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health:
National Abstinence Clearinghouse:
www.jahonline.org/
www.cpc.unc.edu/addhealth
www.abstinence.net/
URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2005/03/18/national/a115514S47.DTL