How to bathe with a quart of water

http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/VanDwellers/message/7404

Valerie writes:

“…I would like to share my bathing method with you. Im not van-dwelling yet but camping in a tent in my yard at the moment honing my skills for the time I do get my van.
Anyway here is a very efficient method of bathing, and it works great even though my hair is getting long.
All you need is a large salad bowl, and a medium sized lemondade type pitcher. Just fill the pitcher with warm water, (if available, though cold works just fine if its not freezing out) take a small dipper, (I use a 4oz measuring cup) starting with your head, lean your head over the large salad bowl and start scooping water over the back of your head letting the water run into the salad bowl. When you have a few inches of water in the bowl, dip the front part of your head in it, until your hair is saturated. Now ( I will pause here to give you my shampoo recipe that works perfect for this. 1 part conditioner-2 parts shampoo- and 3 parts water to dilute. ) starting at the back get your head good and sudsed. dip more water on if needed to make a good soaping, massage that all in, then do the same to the front. when you feel satisfied your hair is squeeky clean. start rinsing it with the same bowl water even though its quite soapy by now. This is just to get the excess soap out, after that, start scooping clean water over your hair and into the bowl until you are satisfied its rinsed. This takes an amazingly small amount of water. Once its rinsed well at this point, I wrap my head in a towel, wash my face and apply moisturizer. Usually at this point I have kept my robe on so I wont freeze . Now you are ready to do the rest of you, and the shampoo water will do just fine. with the rest of the water in the jug to get the soap residue off. To avoid making a big wet mess, I use the wash cloth like a squeegey, and apply body lotion to my still damp skin, then jump back into my robe. The whole thing takes about 15 minutes, and you feel even cleaner than if you had a bath or shower, and amazingly it takes little more than a quart of water to do all of you, and with enough water left in the jug to cleanse your bowl out with a bit of ajax….”

Vacation, Adventure, and Surgery

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/21/60minutes/main689998.shtml

Vacation, Adventure And Surgery?
April 24, 2005

Summertime. It's almost upon us. Millions will be heading out to foreign
lands for vacation, adventure, tourism, or just a beautiful beach. But how
about hip surgery or a multiple bypass or a facelift?

A growing number of tourists are doing just that: combining holidays with
health care. And that's because a growing number of countries are offering
first-rate medical care at third-world prices.

Many of these medical tourists can't afford health care at home; the 40
million uninsured Americans, for example. Others are going for procedures
not covered by their insurance: cosmetic surgery, infertility treatment.

And the hospitals in these faraway countries are glad to have these medical
tourists. In fact, they are courting their business, trying to get more
people to outsource their own health care. Correspondent Bob Simon reports.
——————————————————————————–
Thailand is an exotic vacation spot known for its Buddhas, its beaches, its
brothels, and the bustle of Bangkok.

But for people needing medical care, it's known increasingly for Bumrungrad
Hospital, a luxurious place that claims to have more foreign patients than
any other hospital in the world. It's like a United Nations of patients
here, and they're cared for by more than 500 doctors, most with
international training.

The hospital has state-of-the-art technology, and here's the clincher: the
price. Treatment here costs about one-eighth what it does in the United
States. It's the No. 1 international hospital in the world.

“It's sort of Ground Zero. I haven't heard anybody yet who's told us that
they take more than 350,000 international patients a year,” says Curt
Schroeder, CEO of Bumrungrad.One patient is Byron Bonnewell, who lives
12,000 miles away in Shreveport, La., where he owns and runs a campground
for RVs. A year and a half ago, he had a heart attack, and his doctor told
him he really needed bypass surgery.

“They told me I was gonna die,” says Bonnewell, who didn't have insurance.

He estimates he would have had to pay over $100,000 out of his own pocket
for the operation he needed, a complicated quintuple bypass. And he says he
actually decided not to do it: “I guess I figured I'd rather die with a
little bit of money in my pocket than live poor.”

But Bonnewell says his health was deteriorating quickly, when he read about
Bumrungrad Hospital: “I was in my doctor's office one day having some tests
done, and there was a copy of Business Week magazine there. And there was an
article in Business Week magazine about Bumrungrad Hospital. And I came home
and went on the Internet and made an appointment, and away I went to
Thailand.”

He made that appointment after he learned that the bypass would cost him
about $12,000. He chose his cardiologist, Dr. Chad Wanishawad, after reading
on the hospital's Web site that he used to practice at the National
Institutes of Health in Maryland.

“Every doctor that I saw there has practiced in the United States,” says
Bonnewell.

But three days after walking into the hospital, he was on the operating
table. Two weeks later, he was home.

How does he feel? “Wonderful. I wish I'd found them sooner,” says Bonnewell.
“Because I went through a year – I was in bad shape. I couldn't walk across
the room.”

How was the nursing? How was the treatment?

“I found it so strange in Thailand, because they were all registered nurses.
Being in a hospital in the United States, we see all kinds of orderlies, all
kinds of aides, maybe one RN on duty on the whole floor of the hospital,”
says Bonnewell. “In Thailand, I bet I had eight RNs just on my section of
the floor alone. First-class care.”

That's what the hospital prides itself on: its first-class medical care,
which it can offer so cheaply because everything is cheaper here,
particularly labor and malpractice insurance. You can get just about any
kind of treatment, from chemotherapy to plastic surgery.
Kim Atwater from Bend, Ore., was on vacation in Thailand when she decided to
combine sightseeing with a bit of an eyelift.

Was she nervous about having an operation done in Thailand?

“Yes, yes, I was somewhat hesitant about having any type of operation in a
foreign country, and it turned out to be, I mean, it was beyond my
expectations,” says Atwater.

And it was not beyond her budget: $1,500, and that included a private room.

How would she describe the difference between this place and an American
hospital? “It's much nicer than any that I've ever stayed in the United
States,” says Atwater.

The rooms look more like hotel rooms than hospital rooms, and that's no
accident. The idea was to make the whole hospital look like a hotel and a
five-star hotel at that. There are boutiques and restaurants to suit every
taste and nationality

“Part of the concept was to create an environment when people came in they
didn't feel like they're in a hospital,” says Schroeder. “Because nobody
really wants to go to a hospital.”

Bonnewell says he's going back this fall for another checkup. He'll have to
take a 22-hour flight, but there's even an upside to that.

“We do have a very unique relationship with Thai Airways,” says Schroeder.
“So you can buy a ticket. You can use frequent flier mileage to get your
checkup.”

Whatever it takes to get your business.

“And this is not the only hospital trying to outsource healthcare, is it?”
asks Simon.

“My goodness, no. I, we certainly have not gone unnoticed,” says Schroeder.
“There are hospitals throughout Asia. There are hospitals throughout Asia,
throughout India.” India wants to become the world leader in medical
tourism, and it might just make it. Alongside the familiar images of the
country (teeming, dusty streets, and poverty) you can add gleaming new,
private hospitals.

The hospital boom in India was fueled by India's growing middle-class who
demanded access to quality health care. Now, the country known for exporting
doctors is trying hard to import patients.

The most important player is the Apollo Group, the largest hospital group in
India, and the third largest in the world.

Why is it so important to get foreign patients here?

“It makes sense to establish India as sort of a world destination for health
care,” says Anjali Kapoor Bissell, director of Apollo's International
Patient Office.

But why should foreigners come here? Well, it's even cheaper than Thailand
for most procedures, with prices about 10 percent what they would be in the
United States.

Anne Bell works at the British High Commission in New Delhi. She just had a
baby and says she's glad she was here, and not in England: “There's been no
pressure to go home after the delivery. We've been welcomed to stay as long
as we want. They're looking after the baby. They're looking after me, giving
me enough time to get settled and get confident enough to go back home.
Often in the UK, you might be out of the hospital within five hours if
you've
had a normal delivery.”

And in the UK, she wouldn't have had a private room and a private bath. Not
to mention massages, and yoga, too. And the doctors? Indian doctors are
known worldwide, they speak English, and they're often the very same doctors
you may have had in Europe or America, where many of them practiced before
returning to India.

“Do you find that many Indian doctors are coming back now because of
hospitals such as this one?” asks Simon.

“Yes, a large number are coming back,” says Bissell. “Because they have
something to come back to.”

Dr. Praveen Khilnani, a pediatric intensive care specialist, worked at
several American Hospitals, including Mass General. Dr. Vikas Kohli is a
pediatric cardiologist who worked at hospitals in New York and Miami.

Both need sophisticated equipment to care for their patients, something
India didn't have before the birth of private hospitals like Apollo. They
both wanted to come back to India despite the fact that medical care costs
much less here, partly because doctors make much less.

“How much less do you make here than in the United States?” asks Simon.

“Maybe a tenth or a twentieth of what we were making the U.S.,” says
Khilnani.

They wanted to come back, they say, because they felt their expertise was
needed here in India much more than in America.

“There are probably 1,500 to 2,000 pediatric cardiologists in the U.S. I
would be one of them,” says Kohli. “In India, there were just four of us. I
was very passionate about working for Indian kids.”

Since there are so many Indians who require the kind of care that only they
can offer, why is there such a strong drive to attract foreign patients?

“Who doesn't mind extra money flowing in?” says Kohli.

Stephanie Sedlmayr didn't want to spend the tens of thousands of dollars it
would take to get the hip surgery she needed. And she didn't have insurance,
either. So with her daughter by her side, she flew from Vero Beach, Fla., to
the Apollo Hospital in Chennai. She'd never been to India before, but she
already knew quite a bit about Indian doctors

“My doctor, actually, in Vero Beach, she's an Indian doctor. So, why not go
where they come from?” asks Sedlmayr, who says her friends questioned her
decision. “Hardly anybody said, 'Oh, great idea.'”

But she didn't just come here to save money; she came for an operation she
couldn't get at home. It's called hip resurfacing, and it has changed
people's
lives.

It hasn't been approved yet by the FDA, but in India, Dr. Vijay Bose has
performed over 300 of them. He showed 60 Minutes the difference between a
hip resurfacing and hip replacement, which is the standard operation
performed in the United States. He says his patients usually recover faster
because his procedure is far less radical and doesn't involve cutting the
thighbone.

Instead, Bose fits a metal cap over the end, which fits into a metal socket
in the hip. The result, he says, is that patients end up with enough
mobility to do virtually anything.

“So my patients, you know, play football, basketball, whatever you want. Not
a problem,” says Bose.

Until the FDA approves it, the only way to have this operation in the United
States is by getting into a clinical trial. But be warned: It isn't cheap.

How much does it cost in the States?

“I believe it costs something from $28,000 to $32,000 U.S. dollars,” says
Bose.

And in India, Sedlmayr says it costs $5,800: “Private nurse after surgery.
And, feeling always that they were just totally attentive. If you rang the
bell next to your bed, whoop, somebody was there immediately.”

Sound too good to be true? Don't forget: It's at least a 20-hour trip, there
is malaria in parts of India, patients have complained of intestinal
disorders — and if something goes wrong, you could end up suing for
malpractice in an Indian court.

And one could only wish you the best of luck. But Sedlmayr feels she's
already had more luck than she had any right to expect. By the time 60
Minutes left India, she was into the tourism part of her treatment,
convalescing at a seaside resort an hour's drive from the hospital.

“Is this standard, that when somebody gets surgery at the hospital to come
to a resort like this afterwards?” asks Simon.

“Yeah, they suggest it. They recommend it,” says Sedlmayr. “[It cost] $140
day for myself and my daughter, including an enormous fabulous breakfast
that they serve until 10:30.”

“I think a lot of people seeing you sitting here and what's usually called
post op, and hearing your tales of what the operation was like, are going to
start thinking about India,” says Simon.

“Yeah, and combining surgery and paradise,” says Sedlmayr.

Voodoo knife holder

Voodoo Knife Holder Now For Sale!

Oops, I did it again

This seems…wrong.

Max Rebbe cover of “Oops, I did it again”. Via .

Seacode: offshore coding cruise ship

[I think this is a great idea. Coincidentally, I've been thinking recently about what it would take to start up a Medical Cruise line, a floating hospital/cruise ship that would be staffed by Indian doctors.]

Via Mike Linksvayer

http://www.sourcingmag.com/blog/blogdefault.aspx?view=plink&id=383>

From Offshore to Ship-to-Shore
4/5/2005 11:18:00 PM

Roger Green and David Cook seem like your run-of-the-mill high tech execs — well dressed, well spoken, bright guys. That is, until they tell you their business plan. (I heard it at a party last night here at the Gartner conference, then did a quick interview with them.) And then you have to wonder, are these guys whacked?

Here’s their basic idea:

Take a used cruise ship, plant it in international waters three miles off the coast of El Segundo, near Los Angeles, people it with 600 of the brightest software engineers they can find around the world (both men and women), and run a 24-hour-a-day programming shop, thereby avoiding H-1B visa hassles while still exploiting offshore labor cost arbitrage and completing development projects in half the time they’d take onshore or offshore.

“As more people have run the [offshore] gauntlet and found the joys of traveling to India coach class and having three weeks of stuff on their desk when they come back, [they discover] it’s much more disruptive than they ever imagined it would be,” explains Mr. Green.

Before you think, “sweat-ship,” hear them out. These workers, they say, will each have private rooms with baths, meal service, laundry service, housekeeping and access to on-board leisure-time activities. Picture the Love Boat with a timecard. Staff can make the three-mile voyage into town in their off hours by calling a water taxi. Or they can spend time shopping in the on-board duty-free shop.

“Engineers can be kind of quirky in some ways, but they can be really productive if you give them the right setting,” says Mr. Green. “We think we’re going to be putting them in the perfect setting. Very few distractions. They’ll be with similarly motivated people who are really interested in advancing and doing this engineering work. It’ll be this perfect place for getting engineers to work.”

Half the developers will have the day shift and half will have the night shift. “But they’ll probably meet in the middle and chit-chat,” says Mr. Green.

The scheme first came to Mr. Cook one day while he was cutting his grass in San Diego. With his unusual background as a super-tanker captain and an IT professional, the idea made a lot of sense to him. He took it to Mr. Green, with whom he’d worked before and who has served as both a buyer and provider of outsourcing services, and they saw the possibility of creating a new form of IT sourcing.

A year ago, they formed SeaCode, Inc. with Mr. Cook serving as CEO and Mr. Green as COO. They’ve signed on a marketing director and CTO and, even more importantly, found an investor. Start-up costs won’t be cheap. A broker right now is searching for just the right ship to buy — somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million.

And now the duo is searching the seven seas for clients.

Says Mr. Green, there are several markets they’ve identified as SeaCode’s “sweet spot.” One is “projects that are under significant time constraints and are driven by market forces that are beyond the company’s direct control — things like cell phones [and] video games –where they have multi-generations in a year and they need to have that high level of collaboration. We believe we add tremendous value to that kind of project. And also they don’t tend to be looking for thousands of bodies.”

But because hiring hasn’t really kicked into high gear, the clients also need to be “a bit more strategic in their thinking,” he explains. “Let’s plan the next generation. Anyone in the cell phone or game business, the next one is coming.”

Another potential market: pieces of projects being run by other service providers.

Staffing will start as soon as the first “anchor” client is signed on.

They expect most new hires to come from India. But, says Mr. Green, “If you have a project that requires a [graphical] interface, maybe there’s a back end database, maybe there’s a mainframe component, and there’s some embedded software, you might have to hire from four different countries and operate this virtual team to get the project done. With SeaCode's approach, all the engineers are living and working together on the ship as a true high-performance team.” Even though the programmers will get paid a multiple of what they would earn in their own country, he adds, “this…approach costs the client no more than before.”

Americans will also be hired both as part of a land-based service organizations, says Mr. Green. “These will be the very high end individuals managing engagements and [acting as] the liaisons to our customers. We’ll need Americans for that.”

Americans will also work on the ship, to act as “the bridge between the work that gets defined and designed on land and to make sure that it gets executed properly.” The advantage, he says, is that when “you want to collaborate with your engineers, it won’t mean a three-week trip to India. If you’re in LA, it means a 30 minute boat ride. If you’re in San Francisco, it’s an hour plane ride and then a 30-minute boat ride.”

That proximity is a definite advantage to the ship-based sourcing, says Mr. Green. “We expect collaboration to be a much higher level than [it is] traditionally. It’s one of the main areas where people get into trouble in managing distant projects. They lose touch. And the cultural differences make it hard to communicate. We expect to fully take advantage of that proximity.”

Also, he explains, “We address a lot of the gotchas — security issues, intellectual property rights.”

Teams of workers will be “pod”-based — small groups who collaborate and work together. Mr. Cook dreams of a day when these pods will “party together, they’ll go to shore together. They’ll work together. And pretty soon, they don’t even have to speak, and they’ll know what the other one is thinking… It’s almost like the military, like bootcamp, where they break them down and mold them as a team. [But] that’ll happen just naturally, by these people living in close approximation.”

Clients will have access to on-board facilities as well — including “first-class” cabins, conference rooms looking out onto Los Angeles, and a helipad for the helicopter that will take them to and from the ship.

Mr. Green and Mr. Cook point out that they’re not doing pure offshoring. “It does disturb me to think that when we spend all these dollars over seas, all of the money leaves [the country],” says Mr. Green. “It goes to real estate, it goes to food, it goes to workers over there. We’re going to keep about 10 percent back, which goes to direct wages. And the rest of the money that we get as revenue goes to the US. We’re an American company with American shareholders. We’re going to buy our fuel and food right in the US. And the money is going to get returned right in California.”

The operation will use T3 connections via microwave, cell phone access and local area codes. US providers will supply phone and Internet access.

A year from now, SeaCode expects its first ship to be fully staffed and tackling development projects. When that reaches capacity, the two men will scale up operations by buying another ship and planting it offshore somewhere else, perhaps in another US location, perhaps near Europe.

“We can take our ship anywhere we want,” says Mr. Green. Mr. Cook, the former tanker ship captain, gets a certain faraway look in his eyes at that statement. This CEO plans to serve as first master too.

They say their Web site will be up in about a week. Until then, they're responding at [email protected].

What am I passionate about?

What are you passionate about in life? Why?

I was raised Mormon. Mormons are unusual among Christians in the that they think that in the afterlife, the righteous will grow to become gods themselves, and create worlds and spirit children of their own. “As man is, God once was; as God is, man may become.”

At age 18, I decided that Mormon theology was a load of hooey (as is my opinion of all other theologies I've since encountered). However, I still wanted to become a god, or at least approach godhood asymptotically. But if religion is a crock, how could it be done?

Fortunately, while at National Youth Science Camp, I heard a lecture by Hans Moravec. He is the director of the mobile robots laboratory at Carnegie Mellon University. He had just published a book called “Mind Children”, in which he argued that our understanding of human and artificial intelligence was increasing, and that eventually, we would be able to build robots ('mind children') whose capabilities exceeded our own.

Moravec argued that our minds result from the pattern of connections between the neurons in our brains. Eventually, we would be able to build artificial brains so sophisticated that we could transfer the patterns of our minds (“upload“) from our current biological substrate to these new, artificial substrates.

An uploaded mind would be effectively immortal. Unlike our current brains, uploaded minds could be backed up and widely distributed. Even if one of the backups was destroyed, most of “you” could still survive.

Unfortunately, I believe I was born too soon to see uploading become possible in my lifetime.

However, during my sophomore year at Stanford, I came across an article in Reason magazine about mathematician Thomas Donaldson. Donaldson suffered from a brain tumor, and he was planning to starve himself to death. All suicides, by law, are autopsied, and Donaldson was fighting a court case to prevent an autopsy.

Donaldson wanted to die before the tumor destroyed his brain, because he had signed up for cryonic suspension with Alcor. He planned to have his brain frozen, in the hopes that future medical technologies would be able to a) repair the damage caused by freezing b) cure the brain tumor c) clone and repair his body.

Eureka! As I read the article I became increasinly excited. Here was the solution to my dilemma. If I died before uploading became possible, I could have myself frozen. Assuming cryonics worked (a big if, I know), I could wait as long as it took before uploading became possible.

So I switched majors, from computer science to biology. I read everything I could about cryonics. And after I graduated I worked for several years doing research in organ cryopreservation, first for the Navy, then for a small biotech startup.

I got out of research (for a variety of reasons), but I'm still very passionate about cryonics and uploading. Right now, my plan is to make a ton of money, then fund an prize for the successful cryopreservation of a human being.

[LOCAL - Durham] Dan Klein to speak on "Bias in Academia"

Sorry for the short notice — I just saw this today:

“The Duke Conservative Union will host Dr. Dan Klein of Santa Clara University at 5:15pm this Thursday, in the Breedlove Room.
The topic of the discussion is “Bias in Academia.” Professor Klein has asked some 1,700 academics from six disciplines (anthropology, economics, history, philosophy, political science, and sociology) an extended set of policy questions, and on Tuesday he will discuss the extent of his findings, their impact on educational opportunities, and possible proposals to remedy the situation.

The Breedlove Room is located on the second floor of Perkins Library, next to The Perk. To get there, enter the glass doors and walk down the hall. The room is the last one on the left.”

Snore stopper

http://www.gizmodo.com/gadgets/gadgets/electric-shockbased-snore-stopper-039824.php

“The Healthcare Snore Stopper presents a rather interesting, Pavlovian take on preventing snoring by emitting a gentle (“harmless”, they say) electrical signal when it detects your snoring. In theory, your body will learn to stop shocking itself over time in a form of aversion therapy and as a bonus, the device conveniently avoids waking either of you up. It can be worn on the wrist and is available for just about $60. Also, note the clever use of foreground in their product photo. Subtle.”

When the Singularity is More Than a Literary Device: An Interview with Ray Kurzweil

Via Boing Boing

http://asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml

Though Experiments: When the Singularity is More Than a Literary Device: An Interview with Futurist-Inventor Ray Kurzweil
by Cory Doctorow

It’s not clear to me whether the Singularity is a technical belief system or a spiritual one.

The Singularity–a notion that’s crept into a lot of skiffy, and whose most articulate in-genre spokesmodel is Vernor Vinge–describes the black hole in history that will be created at the moment when human intelligence can be digitized. When the speed and scope of our cognition is hitched to the price-performance curve of microprocessors, our “prog-ress” will double every eighteen months, and then every twelve months, and then every ten, and eventually, every five seconds.

Singularities are, literally, holes in space from whence no information can emerge, and so SF writers occasionally mutter about how hard it is to tell a story set after the information Singularity. Everything will be different. What it means to be human will be so different that what it means to be in danger, or happy, or sad, or any of the other elements that make up the squeeze-and-release tension in a good yarn will be unrecognizable to us pre-Singletons.

It’s a neat conceit to write around. I’ve committed Singularity a couple of times, usually in collaboration with gonzo Singleton Charlie Stross, the mad antipope of the Singularity. But those stories have the same relation to futurism as romance novels do to love: a shared jumping-off point, but radically different morphologies.

Of course, the Singularity isn’t just a conceit for noodling with in the pages of the pulps: it’s the subject of serious-minded punditry, futurism, and even science.

Ray Kurzweil is one such pundit-futurist-scientist. He’s a serial entrepreneur who founded successful businesses that advanced the fields of optical character recognition (machine-reading) software, text-to-speech synthesis, synthetic musical instrument simulation, computer-based speech recognition, and stock-market analysis. He cured his own Type-II diabetes through a careful review of the literature and the judicious application of first principles and reason. To a casual observer, Kurzweil appears to be the star of some kind of Heinlein novel, stealing fire from the gods and embarking on a quest to bring his maverick ideas to the public despite the dismissals of the establishment, getting rich in the process.

Kurzweil believes in the Singularity. In his 1990 manifesto, “The Age of Intelligent Machines,” Kurzweil persuasively argued that we were on the brink of meaningful machine intelligence. A decade later, he continued the argument in a book called The Age of Spiritual Machines, whose most audacious claim is that the world’s computational capacity has been slowly doubling since the crust first cooled (and before!), and that the doubling interval has been growing shorter and shorter with each passing year, so that now we see it reflected in the computer industry’s Moore’s Law, which predicts that microprocessors will get twice as powerful for half the cost about every eighteen months. The breathtaking sweep of this trend has an obvious conclusion: computers more powerful than people; more powerful than we can comprehend.

Now Kurzweil has published two more books, The Singularity Is Near, When Humans Transcend Biology (Viking, Spring 2005) and Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (with Terry Grossman, Rodale, November 2004). The former is a technological roadmap for creating the conditions necessary for ascent into Singularity; the latter is a book about life-prolonging technologies that will assist baby-boomers in living long enough to see the day when technological immortality is achieved.

See what I meant about his being a Heinlein hero?

I still don’t know if the Singularity is a spiritual or a technological belief system. It has all the trappings of spirituality, to be sure. If you are pure and kosher, if you live right and if your society is just, then you will live to see a moment of Rapture when your flesh will slough away leaving nothing behind but your ka, your soul, your consciousness, to ascend to an immortal and pure state.

I wrote a novel called Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom where characters could make backups of themselves and recover from them if something bad happened, like catching a cold or being assassinated. It raises a lot of existential questions: most prominently: are you still you when you’ve been restored from backup?

The traditional AI answer is the Turing Test, invented by Alan Turing, the gay pioneer of cryptography and artificial intelligence who was forced by the British government to take hormone treatments to “cure” him of his homosexuality, culminating in his suicide in 1954. Turing cut through the existentialism about measuring whether a machine is intelligent by proposing a parlor game: a computer sits behind a locked door with a chat program, and a person sits behind another locked door with his own chat program, and they both try to convince a judge that they are real people. If the computer fools a human judge into thinking that it’s a person, then to all intents and purposes, it’s a person.

So how do you know if the backed-up you that you’ve restored into a new body–or a jar with a speaker attached to it–is really you? Well, you can ask it some questions, and if it answers the same way that you do, you’re talking to a faithful copy of yourself.

Sounds good. But the me who sent his first story into Asimov’s seventeen years ago couldn’t answer the question, “Write a story for Asimov’s” the same way the me of today could. Does that mean I’m not me anymore?

Kurzweil has the answer.

“If you follow that logic, then if you were to take me ten years ago, I could not pass for myself in a Ray Kurzweil Turing Test. But once the requisite uploading technology becomes available a few decades hence, you could make a perfect-enough copy of me, and it would pass the Ray Kurzweil Turing Test. The copy doesn’t have to match the quantum state of my every neuron, either: if you meet me the next day, I’d pass the Ray Kurzweil Turing Test. Nevertheless, none of the quantum states in my brain would be the same. There are quite a few changes that each of us undergo from day to day, we don’t examine the assumption that we are the same person closely.

“We gradually change our pattern of atoms and neurons but we very rapidly change the particles the pattern is made up of. We used to think that in the brain–the physical part of us most closely associated with our identity–cells change very slowly, but it turns out that the components of the neurons, the tubules and so forth, turn over in only days. I’m a completely different set of particles from what I was a week ago.

“Consciousness is a difficult subject, and I’m always surprised by how many people talk about consciousness routinely as if it could be easily and readily tested scientifically. But we can’t postulate a consciousness detector that does not have some assumptions about consciousness built into it.

“Science is about objective third party observations and logical deductions from them. Consciousness is about first-person, subjective experience, and there’s a fundamental gap there. We live in a world of assumptions about consciousness. We share the assumption that other human beings are conscious, for example. But that breaks down when we go outside of humans, when we consider, for example, animals. Some say only humans are conscious and animals are instinctive and machinelike. Others see humanlike behavior in an animal and consider the animal conscious, but even these observers don’t generally attribute consciousness to animals that aren’t humanlike.

“When machines are complex enough to have responses recognizable as emotions, those machines will be more humanlike than animals.”

The Kurzweil Singularity goes like this: computers get better and smaller. Our ability to measure the world gains precision and grows ever cheaper. Eventually, we can measure the world inside the brain and make a copy of it in a computer that’s as fast and complex as a brain, and voila, intelligence.

Here in the twenty-first century we like to view ourselves as ambulatory brains, plugged into meat-puppets that lug our precious grey matter from place to place. We tend to think of that grey matter as transcendently complex, and we think of it as being the bit that makes us us.

But brains aren’t that complex, Kurzweil says. Already, we’re starting to unravel their mysteries.

“We seem to have found one area of the brain closely associated with higher-level emotions, the spindle cells, deeply embedded in the brain. There are tens of thousands of them, spanning the whole brain (maybe eighty thousand in total), which is an incredibly small number. Babies don’t have any, most animals don’t have any, and they likely only evolved over the last million years or so. Some of the high-level emotions that are deeply human come from these.

“Turing had the right insight: base the test for intelligence on written language. Turing Tests really work. A novel is based on language: with language you can conjure up any reality, much more so than with images. Turing almost lived to see computers doing a good job of performing in fields like math, medical diagnosis and so on, but those tasks were easier for a machine than demonstrating even a child’s mastery of language. Language is the true embodiment of human intelligence.”

If we’re not so complex, then it’s only a matter of time until computers are more complex than us. When that comes, our brains will be model-able in a computer and that’s when the fun begins. That’s the thesis of Spiritual Machines, which even includes a (Heinlein-style) timeline leading up to this day.

Now, it may be that a human brain contains n logic-gates and runs at x cycles per second and stores z petabytes, and that n and x and z are all within reach. It may be that we can take a brain apart and record the position and relationships of all the neurons and sub-neuronal elements that constitute a brain.

But there are also a nearly infinite number of ways of modeling a brain in a computer, and only a finite (or possibly nonexistent) fraction of that space will yield a conscious copy of the original meat-brain. Science fiction writers usually hand-wave this step: in Heinlein’s “Man Who Sold the Moon,” the gimmick is that once the computer becomes complex enough, with enough “random numbers,” it just wakes up.

Computer programmers are a little more skeptical. Computers have never been known for their skill at programming themselves–they tend to be no smarter than the people who write their software.

But there are techniques for getting computers to program themselves, based on evolution and natural selection. A programmer creates a system that spits out lots–thousands or even millions–of randomly generated programs. Each one is given the opportunity to perform a computational task (say, sorting a list of numbers from greatest to least) and the ones that solve the problem best are kept aside while the others are erased. Now the survivors are used as the basis for a new generation of randomly mutated descendants, each based on elements of the code that preceded them. By running many instances of a randomly varied program at once, and by culling the least successful and regenerating the population from the winners very quickly, it is possible to evolve effective software that performs as well or better than the code written by human authors.

Indeed, evolutionary computing is a promising and exciting field that’s realizing real returns through cool offshoots like “ant colony optimization” and similar approaches that are showing good results in fields as diverse as piloting military UAVs and efficiently provisioning car-painting robots at automotive plants.

So if you buy Kurzweil’s premise that computation is getting cheaper and more plentiful than ever, then why not just use evolutionary algorithms to evolve the best way to model a scanned-in human brain such that it “wakes up” like Heinlein’s Mike computer?

Indeed, this is the crux of Kurz-weil’s argument in Spiritual Machines: if we have computation to spare and a detailed model of a human brain, we need only combine them and out will pop the mechanism whereby we may upload our consciousness to digital storage media and transcend our weak and bothersome meat forever.

But it’s a cheat. Evolutionary algorithms depend on the same mechanisms as real-world evolution: herit-able variation of candidates and a system that culls the least-suitable candidates. This latter–the fitness-factor that determines which individuals in a cohort breed and which vanish–is the key to a successful evolutionary system. Without it, there’s no pressure for the system to achieve the desired goal: merely mutation and more mutation.

But how can a machine evaluate which of a trillion models of a human brain is “most like” a conscious mind? Or better still: which one is most like the individual whose brain is being modeled?

“It is a sleight of hand in Spiritual Machines,” Kurzweil admits. “But in The Singularity Is Near, I have an in-depth discussion about what we know about the brain and how to model it. Our tools for understanding the brain are subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns, and we’ve made more progress in reverse-engineering the human brain than most people realize.” This is a tasty Kurzweilism that observes that improvements in technology yield tools for improving technology, round and round, so that the thing that progress begets more than anything is more and yet faster progress.

“Scanning resolution of human tissue–both spatial and temporal–is doubling every year, and so is our knowledge of the workings of the brain. The brain is not one big neural net, the brain is several hundred different regions, and we can understand each region, we can model the regions with mathematics, most of which have some nexus with chaos and self-organizing systems. This has already been done for a couple dozen regions out of the several hundred.

“We have a good model of a dozen or so regions of the auditory and visual cortex, how we strip images down to very low-resolution movies based on pattern recognition. Interestingly, we don’t actually see things, we essentially hallucinate them in detail from what we see from these low resolution cues. Past the early phases of the visual cortex, detail doesn’t reach the brain.

“We are getting exponentially more knowledge. We can get detailed scans of neurons working in vivo, and are beginning to understand the chaotic algorithms underlying human intelligence. In some cases, we are getting comparable performance of brain regions in simulation. These tools will continue to grow in detail and sophistication.

“We can have confidence of reverse-engineering the brain in twenty years or so. The reason that brain reverse engineering has not contributed much to artificial intelligence is that up until recently we didn’t have the right tools. If I gave you a computer and a few magnetic sensors and asked you to reverse-engineer it, you might figure out that there’s a magnetic device spinning when a file is saved, but you’d never get at the instruction set. Once you reverse-engineer the computer fully, however, you can express its principles of operation in just a few dozen pages.

“Now there are new tools that let us see the interneuronal connections and their signaling, in vivo, and in real-time. We’re just now getting these tools and there’s very rapid application of the tools to obtain the data.

“Twenty years from now we will have realistic simulations and models of all the regions of the brain and [we will] understand how they work. We won’t blindly or mindlessly copy those methods, we will understand them and use them to improve our AI toolkit. So we’ll learn how the brain works and then apply the sophisticated tools that we will obtain, as we discover how the brain works.

“Once we understand a subtle science principle, we can isolate, amplify, and expand it. Air goes faster over a curved surface: from that insight we isolated, amplified, and expanded the idea and invented air travel. We’ll do the same with intelligence.

“Progress is exponential–not just a measure of power of computation, number of Internet nodes, and magnetic spots on a hard disk–the rate of paradigm shift is itself accelerating, doubling every decade. Scientists look at a problem and they intuitively conclude that since we’ve solved 1 percent over the last year, it’ll therefore be one hundred years until the problem is exhausted: but the rate of progress doubles every decade, and the power of the information tools (in price-performance, resolution, bandwidth, and so on) doubles every year. People, even scientists, don’t grasp exponential growth. During the first decade of the human genome project, we only solved 2 percent of the problem, but we solved the remaining 98 percent in five years.”

But Kurzweil doesn’t think that the future will arrive in a rush. As William Gibson observed, “The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed.”

“Sure, it’d be interesting to take a human brain, scan it, reinstantiate the brain, and run it on another substrate. That will ultimately happen.”

“But the most salient scenario is that we’ll gradually merge with our technology. We’ll use nanobots to kill pathogens, then to kill cancer cells, and then they’ll go into our brain and do benign things there like augment our memory, and very gradually they’ll get more and more sophisticated. There’s no single great leap, but there is ultimately a great leap comprised of many small steps.

“In The Singularity Is Near, I describe the radically different world of 2040, and how we’ll get there one benign change at a time. The Singularity will be gradual, smooth.

“Really, this is about augmenting our biological thinking with nonbiological thinking. We have a capacity of 1026 to 1029 calculations per second (cps) in the approximately 1010 biological human brains on Earth and that number won’t change much in fifty years, but nonbiological thinking will just crash through that. By 2049, nonbiological thinking capacity will be on the order of a billion times that. We’ll get to the point where bio thinking is relatively insignificant.

“People didn’t throw their typewriters away when word-processing started. There’s always an overlap–it’ll take time before we realize how much more powerful nonbiological thinking will ultimately be.”

It’s well and good to talk about all the stuff we can do with technology, but it’s a lot more important to talk about the stuff we’ll be allowed to do with technology. Think of the global freak-out caused by the relatively trivial advent of peer-to-peer file-sharing tools: Universities are wiretapping their campuses and disciplining computer science students for writing legitimate, general purpose software; grandmothers and twelve-year-olds are losing their life savings; privacy and due process have sailed out the window without so much as a by-your-leave.

Even P2P’s worst enemies admit that this is a general-purpose technology with good and bad uses, but when new tech comes along it often engenders a response that countenances punishing an infinite number of innocent people to get at the guilty.

What’s going to happen when the new technology paradigm isn’t song-swapping, but transcendent super-intelligence? Will the reactionary forces be justified in razing the whole ecosystem to eliminate a few parasites who are doing negative things with the new tools?

“Complex ecosystems will always have parasites. Malware [malicious software] is the most important battlefield today.

“Everything will become software–objects will be malleable, we’ll spend lots of time in VR, and computhought will be orders of magnitude more important than biothought.

“Software is already complex enough that we have an ecological terrain that has emerged just as it did in the bioworld.

“That’s partly because technology is unregulated and people have access to the tools to create malware and the medicine to treat it. Today’s software viruses are clever and stealthy and not simpleminded. Very clever.

“But here’s the thing: you don’t see people advocating shutting down the Internet because malware is so destructive. I mean, malware is potentially more than a nuisance–emergency systems, air traffic control, and nuclear reactors all run on vulnerable software. It’s an important issue, but the potential damage is still a tiny fraction of the benefit we get from the Internet.

“I hope it’ll remain that way–that the Internet won’t become a regulated space like medicine. Malware’s not the most important issue facing human society today. Designer bioviruses are. People are concerted about WMDs, but the most daunting WMD would be a designed biological virus. The means exist in college labs to create destructive viruses that erupt and spread silently with long incubation periods.

“Importantly, a would-be bio-terrorist doesn’t have to put malware through the FDA’s regulatory approval process, but scientists working to fix bio-malware do.

“In Huxley’s Brave New World, the rationale for the totalitarian system was that technology was too dangerous and needed to be controlled. But that just pushes technology underground where it becomes less stable. Regulation gives the edge of power to the irresponsible who won’t listen to the regulators anyway.

“The way to put more stones on the defense side of the scale is to put more resources into defensive technologies, not create a totalitarian regime of Draconian control.

“I advocate a one hundred billion dollar program to accelerate the development of anti-biological virus technology. The way to combat this is to develop broad tools to destroy viruses. We have tools like RNA interference, just discovered in the past two years to block gene expression. We could develop means to sequence the genes of a new virus (SARS only took thirty-one days) and respond to it in a matter of days.

“Think about it. There’s no FDA for software, no certification for programmers. The government is thinking about it, though! The reason the FCC is contemplating Trusted Computing mandates,”–a system to restrict what a computer can do by means of hardware locks embedded on the motherboard–”is that computing technology is broadening to cover everything. So now you have communications bureaucrats, biology bureaucrats, all wanting to regulate computers.

“Biology would be a lot more stable if we moved away from regulation–which is extremely irrational and onerous and doesn’t appropriately balance risks. Many medications are not available today even though they should be. The FDA always wants to know what happens if we approve this and will it turn into a thalidomide situation that embarrasses us on CNN?

“Nobody asks about the harm that will certainly accrue from delaying a treatment for one or more years. There’s no political weight at all, people have been dying from diseases like heart disease and cancer for as long as we’ve been alive. Attributable risks get 100-1000 times more weight than unattributable risks.”

Is this spirituality or science? Perhaps it is the melding of both–more shades of Heinlein, this time the weird religions founded by people who took Stranger in a Strange Land way too seriously.

After all, this is a system of belief that dictates a means by which we can care for our bodies virtuously and live long enough to transcend them. It is a system of belief that concerns itself with the meddling of non-believers, who work to undermine its goals through irrational systems predicated on their disbelief. It is a system of belief that asks and answers the question of what it means to be human.

It’s no wonder that the Singularity has come to occupy so much of the science fiction narrative in these years. Science or spirituality, you could hardly ask for a subject better tailored to technological speculation and drama.

The Unregulated Offensive

[Maybe Bush will do some good after all.]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/17/magazine/17CONSTITUTION.html?

April 17, 2005
The Unregulated Offensive
By JEFFREY ROSEN

I. Justice Thomas's Other Controversy

If you think back to Clarence Thomas's Supreme Court confirmation hearings in 1991, what most likely comes to mind are the explosive allegations of sexual harassment made by the law professor Anita Hill. Years from now, however, when observers of the court look back on the hearings, they may well focus on a clash that preceded Hill's accusations — an acrimonious exchange that few remember today.

Early in the hearings, Joseph Biden, the Delaware Democrat who was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, voiced a concern about Thomas's judicial philosophy. In particular, he singled out a speech that Thomas gave in 1987 in which he expressed an affinity for the ideas of legal scholars like Richard A. Epstein. A law professor at the University of Chicago, Epstein was notorious in legal circles for his thesis that many of the laws underpinning the modern welfare state are unconstitutional. Thomas tried to assure Biden that he was interested in ideas like Epstein's only as a matter of ''political theory'' and that he would not actually implement them as a Supreme Court justice. Biden, apparently unpersuaded, picked up a copy of Epstein's 1985 book, ''Takings: Private Property and the Power of Eminent Domain,'' and theatrically waved it in the air. Anyone who embraced the book's extreme thesis, he seemed to be suggesting, was unfit to sit on the court.

At the time, it was impossible to know whether Biden was right to worry. He was surely right, though, that Epstein was promot

ing a legal philosophy far more radical in its implications than anything entertained by Antonin Scalia, then, as now, the court's most irascible conservative. As Epstein sees it, all individuals have certain inherent rights and liberties, including ''economic'' liberties, like the right to property and, more crucially, the right to part with it only voluntarily. These rights are violated any time an individual is deprived of his property without compensation — when it is stolen, for example, but also when it is subjected to governmental regulation that reduces its value or when a government fails to provide greater security in exchange for the property it seizes. In Epstein's view, these libertarian freedoms are not only defensible as a matter of political philosophy but are also protected by the United States Constitution. Any government that violates them is, by his lights, repressive. One such government, in Epstein's worldview, is our government. When Epstein gazes across America, he sees a nation in the chains of minimum-wage laws and zoning regulations. His theory calls for the country to be deregulated in a manner not seen since before Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal.

After Thomas joined the Supreme Court, Biden's warnings seemed prescient. In 1995, echoes of Epstein's ideas could be clearly heard in one of Thomas's opinions. By a 5-4 majority in United States v. Lopez, the court struck down a federal law banning guns in school zones, arguing that the law fell outside Congress's constitutional power to regulate interstate commerce. Lopez was a judicial landmark: it was the first time since the New Deal that the court had limited the power of the federal government on those grounds. Thomas, who sided with the majority, chose to write a separate opinion in which he suggested that even his conservative colleagues had not gone far enough. The real problem, he wrote, was not just with the law at hand but with the larger decision of the court during the New Deal to abandon the judicial doctrines of the 19th century that established severe limits on the government's power. He assailed his liberal colleagues for characterizing ''the first 150 years of this Court's case law as a 'wrong turn.''' He continued, ''If anything, the 'wrong turn' was the Court's dramatic departure in the 1930's from a century and a half of precedent.''

Thomas did not cite Epstein directly in his opinion. But to anyone familiar with Epstein's writings, the similarities were striking. Indeed, Thomas's argument closely resembled one Epstein had made eight years earlier in ''The Proper Scope of the Commerce Power'' in the Virginia Law Review — so closely, in fact, that Sanford Levinson, a liberal law professor at the University of Texas, accused Thomas of outright intellectual theft. (''The ordinary standards governing attribution of sources — the violation of which constitutes plagiarism — seem not to apply in Justice Thomas's chambers,'' Levinson wrote in the Texas Law Review.) Biden's fear that Epstein's ideas might be written into law had apparently been realized. And the fear would continue to be realized in other courts throughout the 90's as a small but energetic set of lower-court judges, sympathetic to libertarian arguments, tried to strike down aspects of the Clean Water Act, the Endangered Species Act and other laws, challenging powers of the federal government that had come to be widely accepted during the second half of the 20th century.

Chief Justice William Rehnquist is expected to announce his resignation sometime this year, perhaps before the end of the court's current term in June. Rehnquist's retirement would create at least one confirmation hearing for a new justice, and two hearings if President George W. Bush chooses to nominate one of the current justices to be chief justice. At the same time, there is a political battle looming in the Senate over seven federal appellate-court candidates whose nominations were blocked by Senate Democrats during Bush's first term but who were renominated by the president after his re-election. Many liberals and centrists worry, and many conservatives hope, that the doctrine favored by these judicial candidates is originalism, the stated constitutional theory of Scalia. Originalists don't like interpreting the Constitution in light of present-day social developments and are generally skeptical of constitutional rights — like the right to have an abortion — that don't appear explicitly in the text of the Constitution. At least in theory, those in the originalist camp champion judicial restraint and states' rights.

But as Thomas's presence on the court suggests, it is perhaps just as likely that the next justice — or chief justice — will be sympathetic to the less well-known but increasingly active conservative judicial movement that Epstein represents. It is sometimes known as the Constitution in Exile movement, after a phrase introduced in 1995 by Douglas Ginsburg, a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. (Ginsburg is probably best known as the Supreme Court nominee, put forward by Ronald Reagan, who withdrew after confessing to having smoked marijuana.) By ''Constitution in Exile,'' Ginsburg meant to identify legal doctrines that established firm limitations on state and federal power before the New Deal. Unlike many originalists, most adherents of the Constitution in Exile movement are not especially concerned about states' rights or judicial deference to legislatures; instead, they encourage judges to strike down laws on behalf of rights that don't appear explicitly in the Constitution. In addition to the scholars who articulate the movement's ideals and the judges who sympathize with them, the Constitution in Exile is defended by a litigation arm, consisting of dozens of self-styled ''freedom-based'' public-interest law firms that bring cases in state and federal courts, including the Supreme Court.

Critics of the movement note, with some anxiety, that it has no shortage of targets. Cass Sunstein, a law professor at the University of Chicago (and a longtime colleague of Epstein's), will soon publish a book on the Constitution in Exile movement called ''Fundamentally Wrong.'' As Sunstein, who describes himself as a moderate, recently explained to me, success, as the movement defines it, would mean that ''many decisions of the Federal Communications Commission, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and possibly the National Labor Relations Board would be unconstitutional. It would mean that the Social Security Act would not only be under political but also constitutional stress. Many of the Constitution in Exile people think there can't be independent regulatory commissions, so the Security and Exchange Commission and maybe even the Federal Reserve would be in trouble. Some applications of the Endangered Species Act and Clean Water Act would be struck down as beyond Congress's commerce power.'' In what Sunstein described as the ''extreme nightmare scenario,'' the right of individuals to freedom of contract would be so vigorously interpreted that minimum-wage and maximum-hour laws would also be jeopardized.

Any movement with such ambitious goals must be patient and take the long view about its prospects for success. Michael Greve, an active defender of the Constitution in Exile at Washington's conservative American Enterprise Institute, argues that to achieve its goals, the movement ultimately needs not just one or two but four more Supreme Court justices sympathetic to its cause, as well as a larger transformation in the overall political and legal culture. ''I think what is really needed here is a fundamental intellectual assault on the entire New Deal edifice,'' he says. ''We want to withdraw judicial support for the entire modern welfare state. I'd retire and play golf if I could get there.''

II. Glory Days

All restoration fantasies have a golden age, a lost world that is based, at least to a degree, in historical fact. For the Constitution in Exile movement, that world is the era of Republican dominance in the United States from 1896 through the Roaring Twenties. Even as the Progressive movement gathered steam, seeking to protect workers from what it saw as the ravages of an unregulated market, American courts during that period steadfastly preserved an ideal of free enterprise, routinely striking down laws that were said to restrict economic competition.

The most famous constitutional battle of the time was the 1905 Supreme Court case Lochner v. New York, which challenged a law that was passed by the New York State Legislature, establishing a maximum number of working hours for bakers. The court struck down the law on the grounds that it violated the bakers' freedom of contract, which was arguably, but not explicitly, included in the 14th Amendment's protections of ''liberty'' and ''property.'' In a dissenting opinion, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. objected that ''The Fourteenth Amendment does not enact Mr. Herbert Spencer's Social Statics,'' referring to the celebrated Social Darwinist and advocate of laissez-faire economics.

Even after the election of Roosevelt in 1932, the Supreme Court continued to invoke laissez-faire economics to strike down federal laws, including signature New Deal legislation like the National Industrial Recovery Act. In February 1937, Roosevelt threatened to pack the court with justices who would presumably be more deferential to national regulation of the economy. Within a month, the court backed down, upholding a state law imposing a minimum wage for women and minors. (The majority opinion noted that ''the unparalleled demands for relief which arose during the recent period of depression'' had dislodged old laissez-faire nostrums about the equal bargaining power of workers and employers.) The following year, in the Carolene Products case, the court announced that it would uphold all economic regulations unless no reasonable person could believe them to be rational. Today, the conventional wisdom among liberal and conservative legal thinkers alike is that Lochner was decided incorrectly and that the court's embrace of judicial restraint on economic matters in 1937 was a triumph for democracy.

Members of the Constitution in Exile movement do not share this view. Not long ago, I visited Greve in his office on 17th Street in Washington. Greve, a witty and sardonic libertarian, is the American Enterprise Institute's John G. Searle Scholar (his benefactor was a pharmaceutical magnate), and over the course of a long conversation, he explained that 1937 was, in his opinion, an unmitigated disaster, resulting in the judicial abandonment of constitutional limits on government power that are inherent in the nature of a free society and the creation of a regulatory behemoth. As the administrative state ballooned during the 60's and 70's, judicial deference became even more pervasive: new independent regulatory agencies, from the Environmental Protection Agency to the Federal Communications Commission, began issuing a slew of regulations. To Greve's dismay, much of the regulatory state is politically quite popular; even a Republican Congress, he acknowledged, seems unlikely to roll back most post-New Deal programs and regulations. ''Judicial activism will have to be deployed,'' he said. ''It's plain that the idea of judicial deference was a dead end for conservatives from the get-go.''

Now 48, Greve was born in Germany and came to embrace a libertarian outlook during his undergraduate years at the University of Hamburg, from which he graduated in 1981. That year, he visited the United States on a Fulbright and ended up at Cornell for a doctorate in government. (''I consider myself a refugee from the welfare state,'' he said with a chuckle.) His Ph.D. contrasted liberal environmental litigation in Germany and the United States. Greve was frustrated but also impressed by the way that well-financed liberal groups like Ralph Nader's Public Citizen worked in the courts to expand the reach of environmental laws, and he decided that the conservative movement needed to create organizations that would do exactly the opposite.

One of Greve's goals at the American Enterprise Institute is to convince more mainstream conservatives that traditional federalism — which is skeptical of federal, but not state, power — is only half right. In his view, states can threaten economic liberty just as significantly as the federal government. He is still exercised by the lawsuit brought in the 90's by 46 states against the tobacco companies, which resulted in a $246 billion settlement. ''Taking the tobacco settlement down would have a huge public impact — that would push you in the right direction,'' he said, taking a long drag on a cigarette.

Although Greve's liberal critics have argued that resurrecting strict constitutional limits on federal and state powers would essentially mean a return to the unregulated climate of the Gilded Age, Greve emphasized that he doesn't have the Gilded Age in mind. The ''modern, vibrant, mobile'' and global economy of the 21st century, he argued, is competitive enough to regulate itself in most areas. Though he envisions a role for government in protecting against egregious forms of coercion, force and fraud, all other abuses would be regulated by private agreements among citizens. ''I don't think much would be lost if we overturned federal wetlands regulations or if we repealed the Endangered Species Act, just by way of illustration,'' he said.

Greve expressed cautious optimism that his views will get a sympathetic hearing from some of the federal appellate judges renominated this year by the president. He said he is especially happy that Bush has tapped William Pryor, the former attorney general of Alabama. Greve noted that in one of the big Supreme Court cases involving the limits of federal power, which ultimately invalidated parts of the Violence Against Women Act, Pryor wrote a brief that Greve and other libertarians greatly admired. ''Bill Pryor is the key to this puzzle; there's nobody like him,'' Greve said. ''I think he's sensational. He gets almost all of it.''

III. The Network

The idea of creating a network of activist conservative litigation groups was proposed in the early 70's by Lewis Powell, a corporate lawyer and future Supreme Court justice. In the years following the defeat of the Goldwater Republicans in 1964, conservatives were casting about for a new political strategy. At the same time, business interests were alarmed by the growth of the regulatory state and, in particular, the marked increase in environmental litigation. In 1971, Powell wrote a landmark memo for the United States Chamber of Commerce urging a counterattack. In addition to encouraging conservatives to develop a systematic and long-term effort to spread their ideas in the media, Powell recommended that conservatives should get over their aversion to judicial activism. ''Especially with an activist-minded Supreme Court,'' he wrote, ''the Judiciary may be the most important instrument for social, economic and political change.''

At the time, Powell's idea was being echoed in California by a group of conservatives close to Ronald Reagan, who had recently been re-elected governor. Reagan, who pledged to reform welfare in his 1970 campaign, set up a task force to do so, headed by his chief of staff, Edwin Meese III. The resulting reforms, which restricted welfare eligibility and cut the state's welfare rolls by more than 250,000 in three years, were attacked in the courts by liberal groups. Reagan's supporters were infuriated that there were no conservative groups that could respond in kind. ''The liberals were using the courts,'' Meese recalled recently during a conversation in his office at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. ''We wanted to make it a fair fight.''

According to a history of conservative legal activism published by Heritage, ''Bringing Justice to the People,'' the first person to take up Powell's challenge, in the early 1970's, was John Simon Fluor, a wealthy Reagan supporter. Fluor was upset that environmental groups had managed to delay the construction of the Alaska pipeline and the initiation of offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. After conversations with fellow Reagan supporters, including Meese, Fluor provided the seed money for the Pacific Legal Foundation, the first conservative property-rights litigation shop in the nation. It was staffed with members of the Reagan welfare-reform team and incorporated in 1973.

Other conservative business interests quickly replicated Fluor's model. In 1975, money from the major oil companies helped to create the National Legal Center for the Public Interest, an umbrella organization for several regional litigation groups. Each group's focus was determined by its location. The most influential spinoff group to emerge was the Mountain States Legal Foundation, financed by the beer magnate Joseph Coors, which was set up in 1977 to challenge federal land-use and natural-resources regulations, long a source of political resistance in the West. (The foundation's distinguished alumni of the period include Gale Norton, now secretary of the interior, and Jon Kyl, now a senator from Arizona.)

Though these conservative groups clearly served the interests of local businesses, they also attracted a number of libertarians, many of whom were not always consistent supporters of big business. One of the more thoughtful of these is Chip Mellor, who joined the Mountain States Legal Foundation in the late 70's and is now the head of the Institute for Justice, a libertarian public-interest law firm in Washington. When I visited him recently at his office near the White House (with an impressive corner view of the Old Executive Office Building), he spoke engagingly of his youthful idealism. ''I came out of the protests of the 1960's,'' he recalled, ''where I was dissatisfied with the right and the left.'' He immersed himself in the writings of Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize-winning free-market economist, as well as those of the libertarian novelist Ayn Rand. ''It was quite illuminating for me to read Friedman and Rand and to realize that you could not divorce economic liberty and private property rights from the truly free individual,'' Mellor said. ''I came to see that societies where those rights were taken away inevitably led to people impoverished in monetary wealth and basic liberties.''

When he was a law student at the University of Denver, Mellor saw a recruiting flier for the Mountain States Legal Foundation and was intrigued by its mention of property rights. Sporting long hair and a handlebar mustache, he showed up without an appointment, but hit it off nevertheless with the foundation's president, James Watt. (Watt would later achieve renown for his knockdown battles with environmentalists as Reagan's secretary of the interior.) By 1982, Mellor had risen to become the acting president of the foundation, and he soon hired a young law-school graduate and fellow libertarian named Clint Bolick. The two became fast friends and pledged to sustain their passion for libertarian principles above partisan politics. (A fierce defender of Clarence Thomas during his nomination battle, Bolick left the Republican Party not long ago in protest over its anti-immigrant policies and the Iraq war.)

Bolick, whose sunny idealism is hard to resist, still gets indignant when he recalls how Mellor came to part ways with Mountain States. It began when the foundation filed a free-speech lawsuit opposing an exclusive cable-TV franchise granted by the city of Denver to a local businessman who happened to be a friend of Joseph Coors. When Coors resigned from the board to protest the direction that Mountain States seemed to moving in, it set in motion a process that led, a year later, to Mellor being fired. ''Chip and I discovered that there is a world of difference between an organization that is pro-business and an organization that is pro-free enterprise,'' Bolick told me recently. ''We learned that some of the influential backers of the movement were more pro-business than pro-free enterprise.'' After the firing, Mellor said, he and Bolick sat in Mellor's backyard with tears in their eyes. ''We pledged this is wrong, and someday we're going to do it right,'' he said.

They soon got their chance. After stints in Washington with the Reagan administration, in which Mellor was a deputy general counsel at the Department of Energy and Bolick was an assistant at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (then led by Clarence Thomas), the two men, in 1991, persuaded Charles Koch, an oil and gas magnate, to give them $350,000 a year in seed money from his private foundation to start the Institute for Justice. (To this day, the institute does not actively solicit corporate financing, and its $6.6 million annual budget is far lower than those of its liberal counterparts, like the A.C.L.U.) Before long, Mellor and Bolick had achieved victories in lower courts for clients without deep pockets. In a series of cases, they challenged state licensing laws that made it hard for small-business entrepreneurs to break into highly regulated professions. Their successful clients included limo drivers in Las Vegas, African-American hair braiders in San Diego and casket sellers in Tennessee. When Mellor gave me a tour of his office, he proudly pointed out an engraved tombstone of appreciation from the casket sellers, which sits in the institute's reception area.

IV. The (Other) Rights of Man

Defending the right of small businessmen to challenge local monopolies may have been necessary and noble, but for the movement it represented a small piece of the puzzle. If Mellor and Bolick and others like them were to transform the Supreme Court's approach to the entire post-New Deal regulatory state — to ''resurrect the Constitution in Exile,'' as Bolick puts it — they would have to develop a sophisticated jurisprudential framework.

Early on, the movement found its intellectual guru in Richard Epstein. In the words of Michael Greve, Epstein is ''the intellectual patron saint of everybody in this movement.'' Like Bolick, Epstein is too much of a libertarian purist to be a party loyalist. (''Our president is a most inconsistent classical liberal, to be charitable,'' he says. ''He's terrible on trade and a huge spender and not completely candid about the parlous situation Social Security is in.'') But his devotion to — and influence on — the Constitution in Exile is unsurpassed.

''Takings: Private Property and the Power of Eminent Domain,'' still in print 20 years after its publication, purports to specify the conditions under which government can rightfully impose regulations and taxes that reduce the value of private property. Drawing on the political philosophy of John Locke, Epstein argues that before the existence of government, individuals in what political theorists call the ''state of nature'' have an inherent right of autonomy, which entitles them to acquire property by dint of their labor and to dispose of it only as they see fit through voluntary transfer of goods. Epstein also maintains that any form of government coercion — including taxation or other forced transfers of wealth — can be reconciled with the principles of personal freedom only if it makes individuals at least as well off as they were before the tax or regulation was imposed. Epstein's key insight, as the Constitution in Exile adherents see it, is that economic regulations are just as coercive as other involuntary wealth transfers. He insists that if the government wants to reduce the value of an individual's property — with zoning restrictions, for example — it has to compensate him for the lost value.

Moving from political theory to constitutional law, Epstein argues that the framers of the United States Constitution recognized these limitations on governmental power in the Takings Clause of the Constitution, which says that ''private property'' cannot be taken for public use ''without just compensation.'' According to Epstein, the Takings Clause prevents the government from redistributing wealth in any form without appropriate compensation and that a proper understanding of the clause calls into question ''many of the heralded reforms and institutions of the 20th century: zoning, rent control, workers' compensation laws, transfer payments,'' as well as ''progressive taxation.'' Liberal governmental reforms could be sustained, Epstein argues, only if the government were to compensate individuals for the lost value of their property or to make everyone better off in exchange for their taxes. ''This simple theory of governance could be expanded to cover all taxes, all regulations, all shift in liability schemes,'' Epstein wrote in an intellectual autobiography. ''It is also the recipe for striking down the New Deal.''

''Takings'' made Epstein a star on the Republican circuit, and he quickly became a favorite intellectual of Edwin Meese, then Reagan's attorney general. (Perhaps inspired by Epstein's arguments, Meese once announced at a Justice Department conference that a ''revolution'' in economic liberty was a possibility.) In 1986, Meese's office contacted Epstein and asked him to make a scholarly inquiry into Congress's power to regulate interstate commerce. The following year, Epstein published the results of his research in ''The Proper Scope of the Commerce Power'' (the article that Clarence Thomas would apparently later draw on in his Lopez opinion). Epstein argued that before the New Deal, Congress had the power to regulate only the channels of interstate commerce (railroads, for example) but not manufacturing, which doesn't qualify as commerce, or the trade of goods that don't cross state lines. The court, he maintained, was wrong, in its landmark 1942 ruling in Wickard v. Filburn, to allow the federal government to regulate the wheat production of a farmer who grew it for his own consumption. (The government had argued that private consumption was reducing demand for wheat that traveled across state lines.) Though he dutifully noted that his conclusion ''seems radical,'' Epstein called on the court to reverse its error by returning to the more limited pre-New Deal understanding of Congress's power to regulate the economy.

From the outset, Epstein's ideas ran into resistance from traditional judicial conservatives. In October 1984, Epstein clashed publicly with Antonin Scalia, his former colleague at the University of Chicago, in a panel discussion convened at the libertarian Cato Institute. Scalia, speaking first before a standing-room-only crowd, defended the view that judges should restrain themselves from overturning legislation in the name of rights or liberties not clearly and expressly enumerated in the Constitution. ''Every era raises its own peculiar threat to constitutional democracy,'' he said. ''The reversal of a half-century of judicial restraint in the economic realm'' — Epstein's stated project — ''comes within that category.'' As a traditional federalist, Scalia had his own qualms about the unconstitutionality of unlimited federal power, but he was not in favor of striking down laws in the name of ambiguous and contestable economic rights. Scalia argued that conservatives who had criticized earlier courts, like the Warren court, for liberal judicial activism now faced a ''moment of truth.'' They had to show the courage to reject conservative judicial activism as well.

When Epstein heard what Scalia had to say, he threw away his prepared remarks and delivered a spontaneous attack. Freely admitting that he was questioning the conservative ''conventional wisdom,'' Epstein insisted that judges should be much more aggressive in protecting economic liberty. ''There are many blatantly inappropriate statutes that cry out for a quick and easy kill,'' Epstein said, citing minimum-wage laws and other ''legislative regulation of the economy.'' He excoriated the Supreme Court for refusing to strike these laws down. ''One only has to read the opinions of the Supreme Court on economic liberties and property rights to realize that these opinions are intellectually incoherent,'' he concluded. ''Some movement in the direction of judicial activism is clearly indicated.''

V. Permanent Exile?

By 1995, the Constitution in Exile movement had reached what appeared to be a turning point. The Republicans had recently taken over both houses of Congress after pledging, in their Contract With America, to rein in the federal government. And the Supreme Court, by rediscovering limits on Congress's power in Lopez, seemed to be answering the call. For conservative advocacy groups and public-interest law firms, the possibilities for litigation looked encouraging.

In a reflection of the new mood, Douglas Ginsburg wrote an article in Regulation, a libertarian magazine published by the Cato Institute, calling for the resurrection of ''the Constitution in Exile.'' He noted that for 60 years, proper constitutional limits on government power had been abandoned. ''The memory of these ancient exiles, banished for standing in opposition to unlimited government,'' he wrote with a hint of wistful grandiosity, ''is kept alive by a few scholars who labor on in the hope of a restoration, a second coming of the Constitution of liberty — even if perhaps not in their own lifetimes.'' While not all the leaders of the movement immediately embraced Ginsburg's catch phrase (Edwin Meese says that the phrase Constitution in Exile suggests incorrectly that they have retired from the field of battle), among some legal conservatives it became a rallying cry.

The restoration did not occur. The Rehnquist court in recent years has proved more sympathetic to enforcing limits on Congress's power than any court since 1937: between 1995 and 2003, the court struck down 33 federal laws on constitutional grounds — a higher annual rate than any other Supreme Court in history. But the so-called federalism revolution on the Rehnquist court did not deliver all of what the proponents of the Constitution in Exile had hoped. Every time a lower court appeared to be on the brink of successfully striking down a federal statute with substantial political support, like the Endangered Species Act, the Supreme Court wrote a hedging opinion reassuring the country that the justices intended to challenge Congressional power only at the margins.

''I think we failed,'' Michael Greve said flatly when I asked him about the past decade of Supreme Court litigation. ''There are encouraging signs that with the right strategic moves you can make some headway, until the court looks the principle in the eye and says, 'Oh, my God,' and pulls back.'' He rattled off a series of property-rights cases in which the Supreme Court had declared (in his mocking paraphrase), ''Oh, no, this would be too inconvenient, too constraining for government.''

During the current term, the Supreme Court has heard three cases involving questions of economic liberty that, according to Greve, represent the most significant tests in a decade of the power of the Constitution in Exile movement. Kelo v. New London, which was argued before the court in February, concerned Susette Kelo, a woman who sued the city of New London, Conn., after it used its power of eminent domain to seize 90 acres of property, including her house. The city planned to turn the parcel over to a private developer in order to increase the tax base and revitalize the city. Chip Mellor's organization, the Institute for Justice, represented Kelo, whom the institute's lawyers had sought out because she seemed like a sympathetic victim. Standing before the justices, Kelo's lawyer, Scott G. Bullock, asked the court to reject the claim that as long as the state could point to a plausible public purpose for the taking of private property (like increasing the tax base), it could appropriate people's homes. Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, however, seemed unimpressed by the suggestion that courts should second-guess the economic judgments of legislatures.

O'Connor and other justices seemed similarly skeptical during the second case, Lingle v. Chevron, U.S.A., which they heard later that same morning. Lingle involved a challenge to a rent-control regulation in Hawaii. Richard Epstein filed a brief for the Cato Institute that argued that the court should abandon its longstanding presumption that economic regulations are rational and ask instead whether the law, in fact, makes economic sense or is simply a ''naked wealth transfer.''

Randy Barnett, a libertarian scholar at the Boston University School of Law and the Cato Institute, was the plaintiff's lawyer in Ashcroft v. Raich, another key Supreme Court showdown, which was argued before the court last fall. Raich is a challenge to the federal government's attempt to enforce drug laws that conflict with the effort by California (and 10 other states) to allow the use of medical marijuana. Barnett represented Angela Raich, a woman who suffered from cancer that often confined her to a wheelchair but who said she felt much better after being prescribed medical marijuana. The author of a provocative book, ''Restoring the Lost Constitution,'' Barnett argues that courts should evaluate economic regulations with a ''presumption of liberty'' rather than with a presumption of deference. His book identifies a series of regulations that he says the courts should consider constitutionally suspect, from environmental laws to laws forbidding the mere possession of ordinary firearms, therapeutic drugs or pornography. ''The court has not really limited Congress's power very much,'' Barnett says. ''But the fact that it was willing to limit it at all has been an important principle. If it now basically throws in the towel, it will be pretty demoralizing to this whole side.''

In February, a day after the Kelo and Lingle cases were argued before the court, I phoned Epstein and asked him how he thought they had gone. ''I think the exile's going to be a little longer after yesterday,'' he said with a sigh. ''It's a very sad day to watch these guys work.'' Epstein expressed confidence that even if his side loses, the battle for the Constitution in Exile will continue at the state level — ''the emotional grab of those eminent-domain cases is so strong,'' he said — but confessed that he had little hope, for now, in the Supreme Court. ''They really have gone back to the extreme 1937 reaction that anything that concerns the economic well-being of this nation is simply a political matter,'' he said. ''If the Constitution is an annoying obstacle, they'll just get it out of their way.''

VI. Packing the Courts

If supporters of the Constitution in Exile lose all three cases now before the Supreme Court, what happens next? The general consensus, according to Greve, is that the movement should focus its energies on the appointment of sympathetic judges. ''I think the judicial appointments are what matters most of all,'' Greve says. ''And Bush's renomination of the rejected judges is a way of saying, Let's cram the same judges back in their face. That's intended as a sign that they mean business.''

Three candidates recently renominated by Bush for positions on the federal appellate courts are sympathetic to the ideas of the Constitution in Exile movement. In addition to William Pryor, the former attorney general of Alabama whom Greve praises, there is Janice Rogers Brown, a justice on the California Supreme Court and an outspoken economic libertarian. An African-American and a daughter of sharecroppers, Brown has been promoted by many libertarians as an ideal Supreme Court candidate. Known for her vigorous criticism of the post-New Deal regulatory state, Brown has called 1937, the year the Supreme Court began to uphold the New Deal, ''the triumph of our socialist revolution,'' adding in another speech that ''protection of property was a major casualty of the revolution of 1937.'' She has praised the court's invalidation of maximum-hour and minimum-wage laws in the Progressive era, and at her Senate confirmation hearing in 2003, she referred disparagingly to ''the dichotomy that eventually develops where economic liberty — property — is put on a different level than political liberties.''

From Greve's point of view, another sympathizer whom Bush has nominated for a federal appellate judgeship is William G. Myers III, who was the chief lawyer at the Department of the Interior and a lifelong advocate for mining and grazing interests. Democrats in the Senate have expressed special concern about Myers's narrow view of Congress's power to pass environmental regulations: he has criticized the ''fallacious belief that the centralized government can promote environmentalism'' and has denounced the Endangered Species Act and Clean Water Act as ''regulatory excesses.'' He also helped to found Cattlemen Advocating Through Litigation, a conservative group that challenges environmental regulations in court. On March 17, he was the first candidate approved by the Judiciary Committee, on a party line vote.

For Democrats in the Senate, a main cause of concern is not only the principles that these judges embrace but also the potential conflicts of interests that their loyalties can create. For example, Douglas Ginsburg, the judge who introduced the phrase Constitution in Exile, serves on the board of a group called the Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment, or FREE, which favors free-market solutions to environmental problems. As Douglas Kendall of the Community Rights Counsel, an environmental watchdog group, has reported, between 1992 and 2001 Ginsburg took more than a dozen all-expenses-paid trips, mainly to Montana, under FREE's auspices, where he often participated in its judicial-education seminars. In 1999, a constitutional challenge to emission regulations in the Clean Air Act was accepted for argument before Ginsburg. The lawyer who was challenging the regulations on behalf of several industry groups, Edward Warren, had also served on the board of FREE. Ginsburg joined an opinion accepting Warren's argument that the emission regulations were unconstitutional. A dissenting opinion charged the majority with ignoring ''the last half century of Supreme Court jurisprudence,'' and the Supreme Court unanimously reversed the decision two years later in an acerbic opinion written by Scalia.

The battle over the ideologies and allegiances of appellate judges is, of course, something of a dress rehearsal for the Supreme Court nomination to come. Greve and his colleague Christopher DeMuth, the president of the American Enterprise Institute, say they are heartened by the judges reportedly on Bush's short list, many of whom they consider broadly sympathetic to their views. ''I think the president and his top staff have shown really good taste in their court of appeals nominations,'' DeMuth told me during a visit to the institute, ''and when the Supreme Court opening comes up, they will be very strongly inclined to nominate people from our side.''

DeMuth was especially enthusiastic about the possible candidacy of Michael W. McConnell, a federal appellate judge in Denver and a former University of Chicago law professor who worked with DeMuth at the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan administration. Greve explained that McConnell not only has ''impeccable social conservative credentials'' but also will ''give you a vision of federalism that looks like the Constitution we once had, and he's intellectually powerful enough to pull it off on the court.'' Most of the other names on Bush's short list have similar qualities: J. Michael Luttig, a federal appellate judge in Virginia, is a vigorous proponent of the view that some federal environmental laws exceed Congress's powers to regulate interstate commerce; John Roberts, a federal judge in Washington, has also questioned whether some applications of the Endangered Species Act exceed Congress's regulatory powers.

The influence of the Constitution in Exile movement on judicial nominations is not always clear, since the concerns of the White House often overlap with concerns of conservatives broadly sympathetic to business interests or the concerns of more traditional federalists. ''If you mentioned the phrase 'Constitution in Exile' in White House meetings I was in, no one would know what the hell you were talking about,'' a former White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, told me. ''But a lot of people believe in the principles of the movement without knowing the phrase. And the nominees will reflect that.'' According to the former official, during Bush's first term, David S. Addington, the vice president's counsel, would often press the Justice Department to object that proposed laws and regulations exceeded the limits of Congress's power. ''People like Addington hate the federal government, hate Congress,'' the former official said. ''They're in a deregulatory mood,'' he added, and they believe that ''the second term is the time to really do this stuff.''

VII. America, Deregulated

If they win — if, years from now, the Constitution is brought back from its decades of arguable exile — and federal environmental laws are struck down, the movement's loyalists do not expect the levels of air and water pollution to rise catastrophically. They are confident that local regulations and private contracts between businesses and neighbors will determine the pollution levels that each region demands. Nor do they expect vulnerable workers to be exploited in sweatshops if labor unions are weakened: they anticipate that entrepreneurial workers in a mobile economy will bargain for the working conditions that their talents deserve. Historic districts, as they see it, will not be eviscerated if zoning laws are scaled back, but they do imagine there will be fewer brownstones and more McMansions. In exchange for these trade-offs, they insist, individual liberty — the indispensable guarantee of self-fulfillment and happiness — would flourish far more extensively than it does today.

Of course, there would be losers as well as winners in a deregulated market economy, and history provides plenty of reasons to be concerned about the possibility of abuse. Even the relatively modest deregulation of today's increasingly global and fluid U.S. economy may provide something of a cautionary tale. From Enron to illegal trading by mutual funds and bid-rigging in the insurance industry, corporate scandals are keeping consumer advocates like Eliot Spitzer quite busy. America, at the moment, is engaged in an important debate about the relative merits and dangers of the market economy, and the advocates of the Constitution in Exile are aware that they cannot achieve ultimate success without persuading a majority of the American people to embrace their vision.

But a political transformation in their favor remains, for the moment, remote, and they appear content, even eager, to turn to the courts to win the victories that are eluding them in the political arena. Advocates of the movement are entirely sincere in their belief that the regulatory state is unconstitutional as well as immoral and that a principled reading of the Constitution requires vigorous enforcement of fundamental limits on state power. Nevertheless, it is a troubling paradox that conservatives, who continue to denounce liberals for using courts to thwart the will of the people in cases involving abortion and gay marriage, now appear to be succumbing to precisely the same temptation. If the lessons of the past 60 years teach us anything, when judges try to short-circuit intensely contested democratic debates, from the New Deal cases to Roe v. Wade, they may provoke a fierce political backlash that sets back the movement they are trying to advance. In this sense, even if the Constitution in Exile movement manages to transform the courts before it has transformed the country, it may find that it has won less than it hoped.

Jeffrey Rosen, a law professor at George Washington University, is a frequent contributor to the magazine. He is at work on a book about democracy and the courts, to be published next year.