"I'd like to do things with you that even the French would veto."

“Pickup Lines from the War on Terror!” via the Eros Blog:

“The UN passed resolution 69 which clearly states I get some ass this weekend. If I don't, the terrorists win.”

“As you can see from this December aerial photo, my bed is utterly empty…now, let's look at the last month's aerial photos…it also apears to be empty”

“Pardon me, I'm here to inspect your pants for weapons”

“How about we role play. I'll be the axis of evil, you be the President. Hear that chatter? I'm about to launch a surprise attack on Bush.”

“My hormone levels are at orange or 'High' We need your help in preventing them from reaching red or 'severe.'”

“Let's roll . . . in the hay.”

“I'm not afraid to take unilateral action, but nookie of this caliber is best done by a multilateral coalition . . . of you and me.”

“You're familiar with the Office of Homeland Security's TIA division? It stands for Total Information Awareness. Well, I'm a federal agent from the T&A division . . .”

“Excuse me, but have you seen my weapon of ass destruction?”

“Baby, have I got a biological weapon for you. Ever heard of smallpox? Well this one's called Largecox. Hurts so good.”

“disarm me, baby!”

“My buds and I just convened an emergency session of our Securi-titty Council, and the vote was unanimous: inspections should begin right now.”

“Ms. Rice? We're going to have to put Dick in an undisclosed location”

I'd call for a full invasion in my pants, but I have disarmed already.

“Hey baby. They call me Sailor Buck. Can I deploy some 'seamen' to your Gulf?”

–Can I explode your bunker.
–My nuclear rod glows in the dark
–I'll Let You Be the Chief of my Staff.

“We need to clear the landing field for a smooth re-entry into potentially hostile territory.”

“I'm afraid I will require complete cooperation and a thorough inspection before I can pronounce myself satisfied” – H. Blix

“The UN Is demanding to send my blue-helmeted peacekeeper into your de-militarized zone.”

Unfortunately, there are some men out there who see a beautiful woman like you and immediately embark on an aggressive campaign of coercive inspections. I however, reject such forms of arrogant unilateralism and would prefer to invite you back to my apartment for a more mutually beneficial, Coalition of the Willing.

I'm the rear admiral and I'd like to introduce you to my seamen”

“Hi, I'm Admiral Ball-sey. Mind if I dock my dinghy?”

I'd like to do things to you that even the French would veto.

I'm looking for your subversive elements.

Honey, can you handle it for yourself for the time being?
It takes a minute or two to reload this thing.
“I love the smell of lip balm in the morning…”

Bunker? I hardly knew her!

“Fire in the Hole”

The Demographics of Liberty

http://www.libertysoft.com/liberty/features/72demographics.html

The Demographics of Liberty

In 1988 and again in 1998, Liberty conducted a detailed poll of libertarians, asking them more than a hundred questions about their backgrounds, behavior, beliefs and opinions. Taken together these surveys offer portraits of libertarians taken a decade apart, and insight into how libertarians are changing.

In the February Liberty we published a summary of the new survey's findings about libertarian opinion and belief, along with an analysis of the results. In this issue, we turn to the demographics of libertarians.

As in 1988, we learned that most libertarians are male, white, heterosexual, monogamous, married, well-educated, with fairly high income. They are mostly first-born. Most were raised in a religious environment, but do not consider themselves to be religious today. They are more likely to work in technical fields or in private business than most Americans, and far less likely to be government employees.

But in almost every way that libertarians varied from the norm for Americans in 1988, they varied less in 1998. In 1988, 100% of respondents were white; in 1998 only 95% were. In 1988, 95% were male; in 1998, only 90% were. In 1988, 59% hadn't attended church in more than 5 years; in 1998, only 41% had eschewed church for that long.

Here are the questions we asked, along with the responses:

What is your age?

1988 1998
65+ 5% 13%
60-64 3% 5%
55-59 6% 10%
50-54 5% 13%
45-49 5% 14%
40-44 16% 15%
35-39 31% 10%
30-34 18% 9%
25-29 5% 7%
20-24 6% 4%

Ages of respondents range from 18 to 83. The mean age is 46.98 years, up from 40.37 in the 1988 poll, indicating that the libertarian movement is aging.

Are you male or female?

1988 1998
male 95% 90%
female 5% 10%

What is your race?

1988 1998
white 100% 95%
other 0% 5%

Are you married?

1988 1998
yes 53% 60%
no 47% 40%

How many divorces have you had?

1988 1998
3+ — 1%
2 2% 7%
1 17% 26%
0 81% 66%

How many children have you had?

1988 1998
4+ 2% 9%
3 8% 11%
2 3% 21%
1 14% 10%
0 53% 49%

The increasing age of respondents probably explains much of the increase in percentage of respondents who are married, the number of their divorces and number of their children.

Are you first-born in your family, second-born, third-born, or later?

1988 1998
first kid 56% 60%
second kid 25% 21%
third kid 12% 10%
later 7% 9%

This is one area where respondents varied considerably from the normal. If the respondents had been chosen at random from families of the same sizes as the families from which the respondents came (average: 2.99 siblings), approximately 45% would have been first-born. In actual fact, 60% were first-born — a variation of more than 33%. This is a substantial variation from the norm — but far less than the variation of 81% in 1988.

Here is the actual distribution of birth rank compared with the distribution that would be predicted by a random sampling of a group of families of the same size:

1988 1998
actual predicted actual predicted
first kid 56% 31% 60% 45%
second kid 25% 30% 21% 29%
third kid 12% 19% 10% 15%
later 7% 20% 9% 11%

What is your occupation? (Check as many as apply.)

1988 1998 Change
government employee 10% 9% -10%
law 5% 5% +0%
non-profit organization 2% 1% -50%
farming 2% 0% -100%
teaching 6% 7% +17%
factory 2% 1% -50%
medical 8% 10% +25%
investor 3% 4% +33%
scientific/technical 13% 7% -46%
small business 15% 23% +53%
sales 2% 4% +100%
managerial 6% 10% +67%
engineering 13% 10% -23%
computer science 26% 16% -38%

There has been major change here: in 1988, 52% of respondents described their occupations as scientific/technical, engineering or computer science; in 1998, only 33% did.

What is the highest level of schooling you have completed?

1988 1998
Doctoral degree 21% 16%
Master's degree 13% 17%
some grad school 16% 16%
Bachelor's degree 24% 22%
some college 18% 23%
high school grad 6% 5%
some high school 2% 1%

Which of the following best describes your religious training as a child?

1988 1998
Roman Catholic 33% 25%
Mainline Protestant 30% 37%
Fundamentalist 7% 10%
Jewish 10% 6%
none 13% 14%
other 7% 8%

Do you consider yourself a follower of any religion today?

1988 1998
yes 23% 29%
no 77% 71%

How long ago did you most recently attend a church or other form of worship?

1988 1998
0-7 days 2% 13%
8-30 days 10% 7%
31-90 days 7% 7%
91-365 days 13% 10%
1-5 years 10% 21%
longer 52% 40%
never 7% 2%

What is your annual income?

(thousands) 1988 1998
$100+ 5% 20%
$50-100 26% 32%
$30-50 26% 20%
$20-30 14% 14%
$10-20 14% 8%
$10 or less 16% 6%

How many years (if any) were you in the military?

1988 1998
0 73% 67%
1-2 13% 10%
3-4 8% 11%
5-6 3% 4%
more 3% 8%

Was your highest rank enlisted or officer? (Question only asked to those with military experience.)

1988 1998
enlisted 88% 35%
officer 12% 65%

What is your sexual orientation?

1988 1998
heterosexual 95% 90%
homosexual 3% 6%
bisexual 2% 3%
other 0% 1%

What is the predominant form of sexual activity that you engage in?

1988 1998
monogamous 70% 70%
autoerotic 16% 10%
casual/promiscuous 7% 9%
celibate 5% 7%
polygamous 0% 4%
group sex 2% 0%

How long have you been with your current partner?

1988 1998
0-1 years 13% 9%
2-4 years 15% 15%
5-10 years 30% 20%
11-20 years 20% 26%
20+ years 23% 30%

What are the political beliefs of your current partner?

1988 1998
active libertarian 5% 15%
quasi-libertarian 24% 27%
passive libertarian 38% 33%
non-libertarian 32% 25%

Do you belong to any community groups?

1988 1998
yes 18% 26%
no 82% 74%

Do you belong to any political organizations?

1988 1998
yes 45% 57%
no 55% 43%

Do you give money to libertarian causes? Humanitarian causes? Cultural causes? Religious organizations?

1988 1998
libertarian 87% 82%
humanitarian 53% 44%
cultural 37% 33%
religious 15% 26%

Do you talk to acquaintances about libertarianism?

1988 1998
yes 76% 92%
no 24% 8%

What percentage, if any, respond favorably?

1988 1998
80%+ 9% 6%
55-75% 13% 10%
35-50% 16% 24%
20-30% 20% 17%
10-15% 16% 12%
1-5% 13% 4%
0% 13% 3%

Do you speak in public about libertarian ideas?

1988 1998
yes 23% 35%
no 77% 65%

Are you a registered voter? Have you ever run for political office?

1988 1998
registered voter 81% 90%
run for office 24% 19%

Liberty, April 1999, © Copyright 1999, Liberty Foundation

Damn, I was born 20 years too late….

In conversation with David Buss

http://www.lse.ac.uk/Depts/cpnss/darwin/evo/buss.htm

…But if you talk to men who were in that position of having a surplus of women they get this glazed look in their eye as they reminisce about the “good old days”. They talk about having sex with a different woman every day. Men born at other times don't….

In conversation with David Buss

Picture
David Buss's 1995 book The Evolution of Desire put Darwin's theory of sexual selection to the human test, and proved conclusively that there's more to sex than gender. the evolutionist spoke to him about the impact of his work, the alternative view of the swinging sixties, and the future of the evolutionary enterprise.

the evolutionist: What has been the response to your book?

David Buss: Well I've had a pretty big reaction – I've had hundreds of letters from all sorts of people, some scientific, some wanting advice with their mating life, some nut cases who have come out of the woodwork with their own theories. There's also been a tremendous flurry of national magazine, newspaper, TV and radio interest.

the evolutionist: How much has that got to do with the fact that the book was about sex?

Buss: There have been a lot of books written about sex that don't get that kind of attention. Sex is a sexy subject, but I think it had more to do with the amount of empirical data I included. I also think there's been an increasing excitement about evolutionary psychology that just wasn't there five years ago. It's begun to percolate down to the public.

the evolutionist: Have you had any academic objections to your conclusions?

Buss: Yeah, there have been some but none terribly serious. Basically in the book I argued that men and women both have long-term mating strategies and short-term mating strategies, and which one they use or which mixture of strategies they deploy depends a lot on factors such as their circumstances, their mate values, their age and the social conditions under which they find themselves. There were a couple of little commentaries in a journal called American Psychologist. One woman argued that both men and women are entirely monogamous and said “What is this business about short term mating and extra marital affairs?” But the other commentator wrote and said both men and women are basically into short-term mating and “what is this business about long-term mating?” – so they contradicted each other, cancelled each other out. It's hard for people to think complexly about the topic but the fact is we have a complex repertoire of mating strategies.

the evolutionist: It's surprising that there's been so little objection bearing in mind that there's a whole industry of academia based on the claim that there's no difference between the sexes – that it's all about gender. Are you surprised by the lack of criticism?

Buss: There's such a large amount of empirical evidence that it's hard to argue with – I did the 37 culture study, with more than 10,000 subjects, specifically for that reason. I knew that the findings were going to be controversial and if I just had 12 cultures someone would say, “but you didn't study the Bongo Bongos in Northern South Swahili”, so I waited, took a long time, and got samples from everywhere that I possibly could. On social science standards it's unprecedented – most people have their 100 college sophomores and try to generalise from that. The result of this mountain of evidence is that there has been widespread acceptance of my findings. If you look at the psychology text books, Introduction to Psychology, Introduction to Social Psychology and the Introduction to Personality Psychology – they all have sections on evolutionary psychology and cross cultural studies of sex difference in mating.

“the notion that we are our evolved mechanisms is alien. To think otherwise requires a leap of faith”

Five years ago, none of these texts had anything about evolution. There's been a massive change; an acceptance of at least certain aspects of evolutionary psychology that have never been accepted before. Psychologists in general tend to be very empirically minded and so they want to see the data, and at least the more reasonable ones are persuaded by data. There are still people that, despite the evidence, will claim that the sexes are identical. You can go around psychology departments in the US and find many people – especially those who are very ideologically motivated – who will just dismiss it, say “the study was done by a male and therefore I refuse to believe it”. That position is getting harder because these results have now been replicated by independent investigators. But I've been pleased with the overall speed with which these things have been accepted. I thought it would take a lot longer.

the evolutionist: Has there been any more work in the area since your book was published? How has it fitted in with your original thesis?

Buss: There's been a lot more research done on sexual jealousy, the importance of short term mating, as well as all the Baker & Bellis work on sperm competition – which suggest a long evolutionary history of non-monogamy. You now have these physiological clues like sperm volume, the different ways in which sperm works and different physiological mechanisms in both men and women to deal with sperm competition. And then at my level, the psychological level, you have the work on sexual jealousy; you have behavioural evidence that infidelities and short-term matings occur in every culture; just as long-term matings – or marriage – is also a universal. I don't think there's anything that I can think of in the book that has turned out to be false. That was possible because I do speculate about some things in the book and I do go beyond the data. Things have been elaborated and there's a lot more known

the evolutionist: Incidentally, were you able to offer any advice to people who wrote in with marital problems? Apart from: “Read the book!”

Buss: Right! I'm not really in the business of giving advice but I'd argue that more knowledge is always – or usually – better than a lack of knowledge. Understanding the underlying psychology of mating and sex differences could help men and women to understand each other. For example, one of the things I talk about in the book is the sex difference in the inferences people make about sexual intent on witnessing a smile. When a woman smiles at a man, men are more likely to infer that the woman is sexually interested – or have a lower threshold for making that inference – than are women. It's clearly part of men's short-term mating strategy and facilitates initiating short-term attempts. But knowledge of this difference can perhaps help the sexes to clear up some misunderstandings. Men get upset because they feel like the woman's been leading them on. Women feel that men are being too sexually aggressive and misreading their signals. Greater knowledge can help reduce some of this sort of conflict. But I'm not really in the advice-giving business.

the evolutionist: Does knowledge take the romance and mystery out of love?

Buss: Not really. People have asked me that and they've asked me how it affects my mating life. Other than being more aware of certain things, it doesn't make that much difference. All the evolved emotional adaptations – which include love: a set of emotional and cognitive adaptations that kick in only in the context of a long-term mating; the feelings of passion, the feelings of devotion, the feelings of commitment – are activated in sophisticated evolutionary psychologists just as they are in everybody else. If you were a nutritionist, would eating a cookie taste any different to you? Of course not. It still tastes sweet if it has sugar in it.

the evolutionist: You've made a point of saying you're an evolutionary psychologist not a sociobiologist. Why is that?

Buss: I call myself an evolutionary psychologist because I am a psychologist who believes that the evolutionary approach has a tremendous amount to offer the understanding of psychology. In fact I think its an indispensable tool for the understanding of psychology. Within the field of those who study evolutionary behaviour there are differences in opinion or differences in theoretical orientation. The terms 'evolutionary psychologist' and 'sociobiologist' are broad and vague, so any statements you make are going to blur these differences.
Nevertheless, one key difference has to do with the emphasis on psychology. Evolutionary psychologist believe that psychology – meaning our information processing mechanisms – are the primary locus of adaptation and that that is a level that cannot be skipped or bypassed. It is essential to describe those psychological mechanisms.

“there are very good adaptive reasons why you don't want other people to predict your behaviour”

In earlier generations some of those who called themselves sociobiologists bypassed the psychological level and tried to generate principles about overt behaviour from principles of evolution. But the same principles of evolutionary biology generate very different outcomes depending on what those evolved psychological mechanisms are. For example, there are certain domains in which men and women have different psychological mechanisms and in those domains the same inputs will produce different outputs. There's only one way you can understand the same inputs producing different outputs and that's by understanding that the mechanisms are different. Hence it's absolutely critical to characterise what those mechanisms are.
The second difference is more difficult to explain but it has to do with the assumptions – sometimes implicit sometimes explicit – about the nature of evolved mechanisms. Some sociobiologists – although not all – have assumed that humans and other organisms have as a goal the desire to maximise gene-replication, reproduction or fitness. Evolutionary psychologists believe that such a domain general goal could not have evolved and cannot form part of the system either consciously or unconsciously. There are a variety of reasons for that argument: one is that you can't track fitness in the course of one lifetime; second, what constitutes fitness differs if you're a male or female, an infant, an adolescent or adult, and depends on context, species and ecological conditions. So in principle, there is no domain general way to maximise fitness. All that selection can produce is more domain specific mechanisms.
Some people have conflated the causal process that produces adaptation with the nature of adaptation itself. Obviously, differential reproduction is, by virtue of design differences, the causal process that produces adaptation. But that doesn't mean that the process equals the adaptation. And nor does the fact that humans are the product of natural selection mean that their goal is to 'out-reproduce' others. I think it's a predictable conflation based on our evolved psychological mechanisms. Part of our 'theory of mind' is concerned with motivation. We think: “if differential fitness is the process, then people will have as motive the desire to embody this process.” We mistakenly think in motivational terms even in contexts where it doesn't apply. We look at the sky and say “the sun is trying to break through” or “it's wanting to rain”. We attribute desires to things that obviously don't have desires. This conceptual error is in part hitch-hiking on this evolved mechanism.

the evolutionist: You've written that we need to understand the “psychological obstacles” to accepting evolutionary theory. Can you give examples?

Buss: Well, there are very predictable sources of resistance to evolutionary psychology. At the end of Origin of Species, Darwin said that psychology will be based on a new foundation – and he was right. But that was 1859 – 137 years ago. So why is evolutionary theory the dominant paradigm in the entire field of the biological sciences, but not in the social sciences? We are biological after all – there's no separate causal process that created us. To understand the slow take-up of evolutionary ideas, you have to understand the sources of resistance to them – and there are many. One frequent objection comes from mistakenly believing that anything biological means that we're doomed to an unalterable fate. Evolutionary psychology has shown that this is a mistake because it highlights the exquisite context sensitivity of our evolved mechanisms. We're not lumbering robots, insensitive and oblivious to the environment, as some people mistakenly believe. Second, people are worried about anything that threatens to predict their behaviour, because if you can predict someone's behaviour you can control it. There are very good adaptive reasons why you don't want other people to predict your behaviour. If you're a football player and you know exactly what the opposing team is going to do, you'd be able to destroy them. One of the key insights of evolutionary psychology is that humans have inherent conflicts of interest with other individuals, with members of their own family, with members of the opposite sex, and members of their own sex. If someone you're in conflict with can better predict your behaviour you'll encounter what is called strategic interference. You're at a disadvantage.

“what is taught in main stream social science to millions of people across the United States is outrageous”

We have evolved mechanisms to prevent others from totally predicting our behaviour. The most obvious example is facial expressions, remaining stoic, trying to conceal your emotions. So there's a resistance to any theories that offer truly penetrating insights into human nature. Whether that resistance can be overcome or not I don't know. People don't like it, they're worried about it.
There's just a lot of misunderstandings about what evolution is, and it's irritating. If you or I went to speak to a physicist, for example, we wouldn't presume to argue with them about quantum mechanics. Even if we'd read a couple of newspaper articles about it, we wouldn't feel qualified. But even after the most superficial reading – a few newspaper or magazine accounts – people feel they know exactly what evolution is and that they can argue with you. In fact there's a tremendous body of technical knowledge that has to be mastered to really understand this field – that's not something you can do in an afternoon. The feeling that you can make do with a superficial understanding leads people to make a lot of mistakes: people think it's genetic determinism but it's not; they think human behaviour is intractable or unchangeable, whereas the opposite is true, the more knowledge you have the more you'll be able to change it.

the evolutionist: Surely that change is limited by a given set of behavioural parameters?

Buss: Absolutely, no amount of knowledge will enable us to turn our arms into wings, or echo-locate like bats. In terms of behaviour I think those parameters are quite wide. It's far easier to change behaviour than the underlying mechanisms or desires. I might enjoy eating sweet and fatty foods but decide that I want to lose some weight, or it's bad for my health. So I'll override those desires and I won't eat that sort of stuff. This doesn't mean the desires have gone away, just that I've been able to override them with other desires. So I can change my behaviour – but it's much more difficult to change the underlying desires. From that perspective the range of possible behaviours – the parameters – are very wide. It's the tremendous complexity of our evolved psychological apparatus that gives us such enormous possibilities.

the evolutionist: In that example what is the “I” that is doing the choosing? Is it another evolved module?

Buss: Not only do we have desires but we have evolved hierarchies of desires that change from moment to moment and day to day. So if you're hungry, and at the same time you're confronted with a very attractive mate and there's a snake creeping up on you – you now have sexual desires, appetitive desires and the desire to get away from the snake. Which do you do first? Clearly we must have evolved decision rules for pre-empting other desire sets. Get away from the snake first, then eat. Or, the mate's going away, maybe you'd better stay hungry and mate. I think there are 'executive mechanisms' whose function is to regulate the operation and sequencing of the other mechanisms. 'Meta-mechanisms' you might call them.

the evolutionist: So when people say they're going to resist the temptation to eat cakes – is it an expression of one of these 'meta-mechanisms'?

Buss: I think it is. People have a desire to be healthy, they also have a desire to maintain their social reputation. In America, being over-weight causes a loss in status and reputation, and also has negative health consequences, so people have those desires that override their desire to eat. It's just the same with sexual desires: we might be walking down the street and see a person we're attracted to. Well, we don't just grab that person and try to mate with them. There are other desires, such as the desire to avoid damaging our reputation – not to have the group come down on us like a ton of bricks – that cause us to inhibit our desires or to find ways of expressing them without losing status or reputation.

the evolutionist: What happens to 'free will' in that cross-fire of different desires?

Buss: People seem to want to feel they have free will. We do have the subjective sense that we – and not anything else – control our destiny. The notion that somehow our genes or our evolved mechanisms are controlling us – or that we are our evolved mechanisms – is alien. In that sense, to think otherwise requires a leap of faith. Anyway, another frequent source of objection is ideological, and there are several aspects to it. People assume that evolutionary psychologists are somehow conservative or reactionary. First of all, it's simply not true – within the evolutionary community you have the whole spectrum of political positions, there's no unanimity, it's not even an issue.

“what we're saying is: there are ducks”

Another facet of the ideological resistance is the belief that acceptance of evolutionary psychology will cause people to become hopeless about the possibilities of change. As I said earlier, that's also an error as more knowledge of our evolved mechanisms will help change – if you want to change. You could argue that ignorance of these mechanisms is disastrous for the possibilities of change. A third aspect of resistance – which is only in part ideological – is that many people are committed to equality, and yet there's the notion that we value people differently. In my work on mating there's a very profound message that says, “well actually, we have evolved mechanisms for valuing some individuals differently than others”. Or, Eugene Burnstein uses the example of a burning building where you only have time to rescue one person – your brother, your cousin, your next door neighbour – who do you save? The responses are very predictable with kin: the higher the degree of relatedness the more likely you are to engage in dangerous forms of helping behaviour. That says that people have intrinsic qualities, and that we have evolved mechanisms for valuing some individuals highly and other individuals not at all. That violates the democratic assumption that people want to have.

the evolutionist: Is that another evolved mechanism?

Buss: I don't know. In this respect I've had success in communicating my work to people who are less educated. I think – and this may slide off into another source of resistance – the resistance to evolutionary thinking is correlated with the number of years of education you have, at least in America, in the social sciences. In my opinion, what is taught in main stream social science to millions of people across the United States is outrageous: that there are no sex differences; that everything's arbitrary; and that we're blank slates on which culture, our parents and our teachers write the contents. I think it's awful that the teachings that are now known to be wrong – the myths of social sciences – are perpetrated on people. The more years of education you have the more they cling to these myths. I've actually been thinking about a book called “The Myths of the Social Sciences”, exploring the myth of culture as a causal explanation. But I don't think they're necessarily evolved mechanisms: when I talk about sex differences to people who haven't gone to college they don't have any problems with the idea – they've observed them themselves. Even when you talk about selection, they have no trouble grasping the idea. There's a certain amount of 'educational inertia'.
There's a joke that says “if a social scientist witnesses something that looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then he says it's a social construction of a duck”. What we're saying is: there are ducks. They have describable features. Not everything is a social construction in the mind of individuals. That's not to say that we don't socially construct things; just that the things we socially construct are not arbitrary.

the evolutionist: At the end of The Evolution of Desire you speculate how aggregate mating strategies lie behind social phenomena, such as the 'permissive society' of the late sixties. Can you talk me through that?

Buss: In the economics of the mating market, whenever there is a surplus of one sex, the other sex is in a better position to get what they want. If there are 100 men and 200 women, men will be in a much better position to get what they want than women will be to get what they want. Secondly, it's very well documented that men have a greater desire for sexual variety, for a larger number of sex partners. One way to describe it would be to say that short-term mating looms larger in men's repertoires than in women's. What that means is that whenever there's a surplus of women in the population there will be more of a shift towards short-term mating. Men will be able to get short-term matings and will be reluctant to commit to long-term matings, and women will have little choice but to adopt a short-term mating strategy if they want to be involved with men at all. The third factor to bear in mind is that men desire women who are younger, and women desire men who are older. Across the 37 cultures, women, on average prefer men who are three to four years older; but, with men, it varies with increasing age so as men get older they want women who are increasingly younger than they are. So fifty year old men want women who are thirty five. So, you take this sex difference in age preference and add a baby boom, you get a mismatch in the population.

“evolutionary psychology has a cumulative quality – the mark of a mature science”

When the baby boomers reach sexual maturity, since women desire men who are older, the pool of men they desire is much smaller, and so for these men who were born just before the baby boom, there's a surplus of women. So you'd expect to see a lot more short-term mating going on in that group. And that coincides with what happened in the sexual revolution of the late sixties and early seventies – a surplus of women reaching sexual maturity. At the tail end of the baby boom you get just the opposite effect – women born at the end of the baby boom have many more older men to choose from. Each individual is just trying to get want they want and it aggregates up at a population level – it's not that the whole group decides, “OK what are we going to do, short- or long-term mating?”. You do see a retreat from the sexual revolution – certainly around the end of the seventies, or the beginnings of the eighties, it was over. But if you talk to men who were in that position of having a surplus of women they get this glazed look in their eye as they reminisce about the “good old days”. They talk about having sex with a different woman every day. Men born at other times don't. There was also an ideology among women that it was good to throw off the shackles of the up-tight, middle-class, parental generation; that becoming emotionally involved with someone was somehow being 'hung up' or 'neurotic'; or being jealous was an immature emotion. Women did experiment with short-term mating and many decided they just did not like it – they didn't feel comfortable. Another thing that confounds the situation was the widespread dissemination of birth control – the pill – and that reduced one facet of the cost associated with short-term mating.

the evolutionist: So what would you expect men to be doing after the baby boom?

Buss: I would expect them to start giving off a lot of cues to long-term mate potential, cues to commitment, devotion… You'd get very stable marriages, a lower divorce rate, and those men lucky enough to get a wife would be very strong in mate guarding and would do whatever they can to keep her. The other thing is that the sex ratio changes as you age, and so it's not something that has gone away. Men die off quicker as they get old, and, if you look men who are divorcing, they are going on to marry women who are increasingly younger than they are. So when women get into their thirties and forties, the sex ratio begins to get worse. When the thirty five year-old's husband divorces her to marry a twenty eight year-old, there's one less man in the pool that's available to her. And that effect grows stronger and stronger with increasing age. Men marrying women who are younger and younger are getting leached from the mating pool. The older women are faced with a dearth of men. It's not a situation that goes away. Some have even speculated this produces profound intrasexual competition.

the evolutionist: I don't know if you're aware of the backlash against the New Man we had in the media over here. There's been a flood of magazines and television programmes celebrating the distinct features of “maleness” – ogling, drinking, fighting, playing football… It's interesting that evolution-inspired explanations might be able to cut through a lot of the waffle surrounding these social phenomena. Maybe you should pick up a copy of loaded before you leave – purely for sociological research reasons of course.

Buss: Absolutely, you have to keep up to date. When I come here [UK] I get all the schlock newspapers – The Sun, The Mirror – to keeps tabs on what's going on. I do the same thing in the States, you have to keep in touch with popular culture. I subscribe to eighteen different magazines, including women's titles like Cosmo, all of them.

the evolutionist: So what are you working on at the moment?

Buss: The two things that are occupying me most at the moment are: first, the topic of conflict between the sexes. In the book I have one chapter on it, a hefty chapter, but there's a lot more to be said about it. We've been doing a lot of research into various aspects of conflict between the sexes. For example, studying jealous conflict in more detail, looking at the characteristics of the rivals, sexual harassment, sexual coercion, trying to understand the underlying psychology of conflict between the sexes – the underlying emotions that get triggered when certain facets of strategic interference come into play. So that's one whole line of research and we're looking at that both in America and cross-culturally. Second is a huge study that I've been doing for a long time, but haven't yet published, on status, prestige and reputation. This continues work that started out in the mating domain. I want to identify what I call 'prestige criteria'; these are the dimensions along which status can increase or decrease. So I've assembled 240 of these 'prestige criteria' – things like showing cowardice, showing bravery and so on. Some things – like having sex with three partners over a weekend – will affect a man's status differently to a woman's. The logic is this: we live in a social world, we're constantly monitoring our status and reputation and also the status and reputation of everyone in our social group: who's going up, who's going down; who's losing face, who gaining in stature. So status, prestige and reputation are tremendously important, and enormously consequential, but we don't know what causes a person's position to rise or fall within the group. I see these criteria as the backbone of the status system in the same way as our desires are the backbone of the mating system. Our desires for a mate determine the entire mating system – who we go after, which tactics of attraction are effective, which tactics are used in mate retention as opposed to mate expulsion, what causes conflict between the sexes, and so forth. Everything flows from the desires in the mating domain. In an analogous way, a lot will flow from the underlying prestige criteria of human groups. So far I have data from 12 different cultures around the world – China, Korea, Japan, Guam, Translyvanian gypsies, Brazil – and I'm waiting for data from two more African countries. Then I'll publish.

the evolutionist: As evolutionary psychology is a study of mental modules and how they all fit together, it's interesting that a similar thing seems to be happening with the discipline as a whole. The Baker and Bellis work fits in with your work on desires, and you might say the Daly and Wilson stuff on homicide was looking at the tail-end of some of these status behaviours.

Buss: It all dovetails very nicely. Evolutionary psychology has a cumulative quality. It's one of the marks of a mature science.

the evolutionist: What kind of things do you hope people will start working on? What will signify that it continues to be a healthy discipline?

Buss: There are a lot of exciting areas to work in – I wish each of us working in the area could have an army of people to help us, because there's so much to be done. If I were to single out some of the important areas that are relatively unknown – some of which have been theoretically covered at this conference [CIBA Conference on Characterizing Human Psychological Adaptations, London, 28th-31st October, 1996] I'd say: the psychology of kinship, which is almost completely untouched – Martin Daly and Margo Wilson have put forward a paper outlining what some of the most likely hypotheses would be; the psychology of coalitions is an extremely important area, which John Tooby and Leda Cosmides have started to explore. This applies to much more than warfare; forming coalitions is a pervasive human tendency that goes on all the time in every office, every university department, every business. There's a tremendously rich and articulate evolved psychology of coalition formation. This includes ostracising cheaters, doing things to increase the cohesion of the group, as well as the tendency to make in-group/out-group distinctions: we tend to treat benevolently those within the group and treat abhorrently and aggressively those who are outside. Notice that these things are all about relationships whereas most psychology has nothing to say about relationships. Humans evolved in small groups where relationships were everything. So the five most important pinnacles of this would be: mating; coalitions; friendships; kin; and social hierarchies, in terms of status, prestige and reputation. In ten years time I hope we know as much about those other domains as we now know about mating, and I hope we quadruple our knowledge about mating. We have not, by any stretch of the imagination, finished on that. As much work as has been done on mating, I still feel that we know five, maybe ten, percent of what there is to know about the evolutionary psychology of mating.

the evolutionist: About one of the species.

Buss: Yeah, but one that we care about a lot.

Sex, Drugs and Rock 'n' Roll — Libertarians have more fun

Via Instapundit

http://www.opinionjournal.com/ac/?id=110003062

AMERICAN CONSERVATISM

Sex, Drugs and Rock 'n' Roll
Libertarians have more fun–and make more sense.

BY SUSAN LEE
Wednesday, February 12, 2003 12:01 a.m. EST

Sometime this month, Congress will vote on whether to ban cloning, human and therapeutic. Conservatives want a total ban, liberals only want to stop human cloning. What's mostly missing from the debate, however, is the libertarian position. And that's a shame. A little bit of libertarian thought would clear the political sinuses.

Libertarianism is simplicity itself. It proceeds from a single, quite beautiful, concept of the primacy of individual liberty that, in turn, infuses notions of free markets, limited government and the importance of property rights. In terms of public policy, these notions translate into free trade, free immigration, voluntary military service and user fees instead of taxes. Sometimes these policies are argued in a totally unforgiving way so that it's not easy to separate the lunatics from the libertarians. But it's a snap to separate libertarians from conservatives.

For starters, although these two groups do clasp hands on the importance of free markets, not all their fingers touch. To conservatives, the free market takes its force only as an economic construct–and even then, this is often reduced to an automatic complaint against high taxes. To libertarians, on the other hand, the model of a free market functions as a template for all things. Not only does the market operate as a continuous process for sorting through competing ideas as well as goods, it also allows each individual to express himself or herself. The latter is simply a consequence of the market's function in testing individual preferences. That some ideas triumph and others fail is necessary.

But perhaps the single distinguishing feature between conservatives and libertarians is that libertarians are concerned with individual rights and responsibilities over government–or community–rights and responsibilities. Consider how conservatives and libertarians divide over cultural issues or social policy. Libertarians are not comfortable with normative questions. They admit to one moral principle from which all preferences follow; that principle is self-ownership–individuals have the right to control their own bodies, in action and speech, as long as they do not infringe on the same rights for others. The only role for government is to help people defend themselves from force or fraud. Libertarians do not concern themselves with questions of “best behavior” in social or cultural matters.

By contrast, conservatives are comfortable with normative issues. Conservative thought works within a hierarchical structure for behavior that has, at its top, absolute and enduring values. These values are not the result of the agnostic process of the free market; they are ontologically inherent. Because conservatives assume that there is a recognizable standard of excellence, they deal easily with notions of virtue and moral behavior. For example, they argue that the state of marriage between a man and a woman possesses great virtue. And they can go on to distinguish lesser states of virtue in other types of relationships. This process of distinguishing isn't an entirely epistemological argument, however; it is based, in part, on tradition and, in part, on sociology taken from assumptions about “best behavior.”

Libertarians believe that marriage between a man and a woman is just one among other equally permissible relationships; they eschew the question of whether there is inherent virtue in each possible state. The only virtue to be inferred is a grand one–that those involved are freely consenting and thus expressing individual preferences in a free market competition among these states. It is no wonder, then, that the cultural debate between conservatives and libertarians takes place over a great divide. Unlike debates over economic policies, there are no liminal issues. Indeed, there cannot be any because the strictness of the divide is a consequence of opposing matrices. Conservative thought proceeds from absolutes, hierarchies and exclusivity. Libertarian thought promotes relativism and inclusiveness–although, admittedly, this tolerance comes from indifference to moral questions, not from a greater inborn talent to live and let live. Conservatives favor tradition and communitarian solutions, and resort to central authority when it serves their purpose. Libertarians value individual creativity and are invariably against central authority.

All this falls to the bottom line in obvious ways. Conservatives are against gay marriage, they are often ambivalent toward immigrants, and patronizing toward women; they view popular culture as mostly decadent and want to censor music, movies, video games and the Internet. They crusade against medical marijuana. For their part, libertarians argue for legalizing drugs; they are in favor of abortion and against the government prohibition of sex practices among consenting adults. They abhor censorship. In the conservative caricature, libertarians believe in sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll–but it is not far from the truth. Unfortunately, these debates are often animated by the fact that conservatives see libertarianism only as the face of what it defends: transgendered persons adopting children, video games of violent sadism and, yes, cloning. Simply put, the shocking and repellent decline of civilization. But for libertarians, these are merely some of the many aspects of a civilization that is advancing through vast and minute experiments. The exercise of freedom trumps the discomforts of novelty.

To push my argument further, libertarian thought, with its fluid cultural matrix, offers a better response to some of the knottiest problems of society. It is, especially when contrasted with the conservative cultural matrix, a postmodern attitude. In fact, it is precisely this postmodernism that enrages conservatives who are uncomfortable with a radical acceptance that, in turn, promotes change and unfamiliarity. Yet no matter how scary (or irritating), libertarian tolerance provides a more efficient mechanism in dealing with those places where economics, politics and culture clash so intimately.

Although libertarians tend toward an annoying optimism, no reasonable observer would venture a prediction on the winner of the conservative-libertarian debate. The outcome depends crucially on where societies ultimately fix the locus of coercion between liberty and authority for politics, and between tolerance and conformity for culture. One can imagine, though, how discouraged F.A. Hayek must have felt in 1944 when he sat down to write “The Road to Serfdom.” Now, few doubt that Hayek has won and that the economic argument has been settled in favor of free markets. What remains is the battle over politics and culture. One down, two to go.

Ms. Lee is a member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board.

The LiveJournal Valentine System

LJ Valentine's, oh boy! Via

http://www.steve.org.uk/lvs/index.html

The LiveJournal Valentine System

Welcome to the LiveJournal Valentine System, this site is designed to allow you to name another LiveJournal user as your valentines – without having to suffer the embarrassment of rejection.

Each member is allowed to nominate up to three other LiveJournal members which are stored upon ths system here.

At the end of the week, on Valentines day itself, you will be sent an email if one of the individuals you nominated also nominated you.

The idea for this site was originally presented in a public entry within my journal, to see if others would consider it useful or interesting. A sufficiently large number of people commented that I actually put the system together. (Amazing what somebody will do for a date ;)

Note: this site, and it's contents are not officially associated or affiliated with LiveJournal in any way, shape, or form.

I hope someone choo-choo-chooses me!

Free State Project on MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.com/news/870011.asp?0sp=W5b8&0cb=-81a77393&cp1=1

Libertarians: New State of Mind
Can 20,000 transplants transform a small state into a libertarian Utopia?

NEWSWEEK
Feb. 17 issue — A growing contingent of libertarians have decided that to get anywhere in politics they need to go … somewhere. A plan by the Free State Project calls for 20,000 “freedom-loving people” to move to a small state and stage a bloodless coup in the next five years. In this utopia the state would slash taxes, reject most federal assistance, dump gun-control laws, legalize drugs, disband public schools and privatize almost all services.

FOUNDER JASON SORENS, 26, a Yale political-science doctoral candidate, says the group will vote on where to invade when 5,000 people sign on; so far about half that many have said they’d move. Their likely destination: New Hampshire or Wyoming, states with fewer than 1.5 million residents where 20,000 votes could sway an election. Wyoming’s got the greatest number of voters who picked conservative or libertarian candidates in recent presidential races. New Hampshire has the lowest percentage of government employees and teachers in unions, and coastal access “to make ourselves less dependent on the American market,” freestateproject.org notes. (The site addresses questions like “Can’t you make a warmer state an option?”) The party’s presidential candidate in 1996 and 2000, Harry Browne, says he’s not bashing the idea but calls it “collectivism,” which is anti-libertarian. Sorens is undeterred. Libertarians “don’t want to live the rest of their lives among people who think, basically, that they’re nuts.”
—Steve Friess

What Jason Sorens learned in Vermont

Jason Sorens, leader of the Project, recently posted an excellent summary of his visit to Vermont, where he was also interviewed by the producers of This American Life:

http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=3;action=display;threadid=1279

I arrived at the Burlington airport on Saturday around noon and met Robert Maynard, the president of Citizens for Property Rights in Vermont. We had lunch and chatted about the state of the libertarian movement in Vermont.

The Vermont Libertarian Party split in 2000. The leadership at the time was strongly anti-conservative and expelled those who were opposed to the civil unions law, including the lone Libertarian representative in the state house, Neil Randall. (He was elected as a Libertarian/Republican.) The civil unions issue was not the only reason for the split. There was a major disagreement in strategy. The leadership wished to pursue a purist, intellectual course and rejected making alliances with the Take Back Vermont movement and its “populist” approach. Although Take Back Vermont has been most closely associated with the civil unions issue, the movement actually started in 1998 with opposition to the school funding law, Act 60, which has resulted in a significant increase in property taxes in many parts of the state.

Robert Maynard was one of those who favored making alliances with the populist conservatives, and he left the Libertarian Party. Neil Randall won re-election in 2000 as a Republican. Robert admits that there are pitfalls in allying with the political right in Vermont, and my subsequent experiences would bear this out. The Take Back Vermont movement is seen as “extremist” or “reactionary” in much of Vermont, certainly the Burlington area. This has to do with the rhetoric and strategy of the movement more than anything else, I believe. At the CPR meeting I was a bit uncomfortable with the way people talked about “the homosexuals”, “out-of-state homosexual money,” “the homosexual agenda,” and similar phrases, as if people who are homosexual are politically or even culturally monolithic. There's also an infamous story about the opponents of Act 60, who protested in front of the capitol and during this protest brought out the old car of a particularly liberal state senator, which they had purchased, and destroyed it with sledgehammers. The grassroots conservatives in Vermont are not exactly slick political operatives, and it's clear they rub many people the wrong way with their blunt, oppositional approach.

The people at the CPR meeting were mostly very favorable to the FSP. I handed out several Statements of Intent and shook hands with Neil Randall, who gave a talk as well. He was defeated in the 2002 election, as were many other quasi-libertarians in the Vermont House. I also met Hardy Macia, an early joiner of the FSP and Vermont LP activist. He ran for the state house as a Libertarian/Republican and came within 100 votes of victory. Neither Hardy nor Neil had held elective political office prior to running for state house. The large size of the house – and small size of districts – makes it relatively easy for newcomers and political neophytes to win election, if they are good campaigners.

After the meeting, I headed out with the NPR folks who are doing a segment on the Free State Project for “This American Life,” a national program that runs weekly on NPR stations. We met with one of the leaders of the Progressive Party in Vermont, Anthony Pollina. He ran for lieutenant governor in 2002 and won 25% of the vote in a three-way race. Needless to say, he was basically opposed to the Free State Project and insisted that Vermonters would reject our ideas, because they favor “the active engagement of government.” It was difficult for me to reply to this, because he was a Vermont resident and I was not, although I knew that many of my views were shared by Vermonters, particularly those of the old stock. The reporters asked where he was from, and it turns out he moved from New Jersey to Vermont in the early 1970s. “So didn't you do exactly what Jason is planning to do?” they asked. He grinned at that and backpedalled somewhat. “Well, if you're coming to Vermont for the quality of life and will work toward strengthening our communities, you're certainly welcome,” he replied.

After the interview, I returned to Robert Maynard's home, where I was spending the night. We stayed up and talked politics some more. I presented the idea of a non-partisan voters' league to him, and he thought that was an idea that could work particularly well in Vermont. “The problem in Vermont is that you need the grassroots conservatives for your activists, but you also need to be able to reach out to rank-and-file progressives and moderates and not scare the bejeezus out of them,” he said. “For that, you'll need an effective leadership. But I think the Take Back Vermont folks are learning very quickly how to play the political game.” He said that, historically, Vermont was the most libertarian state in the country, the only state to oppose FDR and the New Deal, and the state that gave the country Calvin Coolidge, the 20th century's most libertarian president. However, it has changed a great deal since the 1960s, and now New Hampshire is more libertarian than Vermont. Robert, a fourth-generation Vermonter, said that he'd be unable to move from Vermont, since he had recently bought a new business, but said that putting his biases aside, he believed Vermont and New Hampshire were about equal in potential for success. New Hampshire is about “ten years behind” Vermont in the march to statism, and has a much better organized conservative-libertarian movement than Vermont. But Vermont is smaller, the town meeting tradition is stronger in Vermont, and Vermont's history is an asset. Robert believes that land area is a crucial consideration: to form a grassroots movement you will have to hold town meetings around the state, and short driving distances are essential for these. A potentially workable alternative is a state that has a few population centers, in each of which we would have significant concentrations of activists. He lent me The Vermont Papers by Bryan and McClaughry.

The next day, the NPR reporters and I met with the mayor of Burlington. He is Bernie Sanders' successor to the post and runs as a Progressive. Nevertheless, he is much more moderate than Sanders. He was also a bit more welcoming than Pollina, though he said that we would be unable to “take over” the state, due to Vermonters' liberal views and resistance to outsiders. He believed that we would become a significant part of the general Vermont milieu, merely one group among a diversity of ideological groups. He did mention several times that he believed Progressives and Libertarians had quite a few things in common. He even admitted that Vermont's regulatory process had become unworkable, and that it needed to be streamlined in order to work for small business, something that Pollina had refused to concede. However, he said that he was committed to strengthening code enforcement in Burlington and providing subsidies for people to buy homes. Government apparently has a fairly significant role in funding home purchases in Vermont. This, when combined with the congested permit process for new developments, probably is a significant cause of the housing shortage in Vermont, which is something almost everyone we talked to mentioned as a problem in getting 20,000 people to settle in the state. When government subsidizes home-buying, it pushes up demand for homes, and when the regulatory process prevents supply from adjusting, we have a shortage. The reporters asked the mayor to draw a map of Vermont and show which parts of the state would be most supportive of our movement. He drew Vermont and New Hampshire, indicated the Connecticut River as the border between the two, and drew an arrow from Vermont to New Hampshire. “That's where you need to go, across the river.” We had a good laugh about that.

After meeting with the mayor, we walked around the restaurant and spoke to some “ordinary Vermonters.” Since we were in downtown Burlington, most of them were definitely progressive types. We did meet one fellow who described himself as basically libertarian, and said that he voted for both Libertarians and Progressives in local races. He said he did this because he wanted all views to be heard. This seemed to be a common thread in responses to our idea. Vermonters are natively anti-establishment. I can't remember exactly how, but I got into a debate with one fellow over separation of school & state. I wasn't completely well prepared for that discussion, and though I had arguments for every point he made, I don't think I brought them down to a readily understandable level. One good analogy to use to make the case for separation (which I only thought of much later) is to compare education to other industries. Kids have a right to be fed as much as educated, so does that mean restaurants and grocery stores should be government owned and operated? Of course not – and you can talk about why government ownership of groceries & restaurants would fail: lack of choice & competition resulting in declines in quality, the necessity of rationing to control demand for a “free” service, etc. All these arguments apply equally well to schooling.

After this we met with the principal of Burlington High School. As could be expected, she was pretty much a typical NEA type who rejected all significant reform of government schooling out of hand. Bush-ian “quality control” was about the most she was willing to consider. She said we “should probably move out to Idaho or somewhere, where I hear a lot of people own guns and homeschool and hate the government.” This wasn't a particularly productive conversation.

We then visited with Mary Alice McKenzie, a business owner and major figure in the Republican Party in Vermont. Apparently her name has been mentioned in the past as a potential gubernatorial candidate. She described her political views as “very fiscally conservative and socially liberal.” She's basically a libertarian! She's also a pragmatist, though, and was very complimentary toward the mayor of Burlington, crediting him with repealing some of the more egregiously anti-business measures instituted by Bernie Sanders when he was mayor. She thought the political model of the Free State Project was sound and believed that we would have a major impact if we moved there. Her main caveat was the economy. She said that regulations were stifling jobs growth, and that lack of risk capital would make it very difficult to start new businesses. She was very interested in and supportive of our efforts otherwise, however. It was heartening to hear such a major figure in Vermont support our efforts.

The last interview was with a part-time lobbyist for the forestry industry, an acknowledged libertarian who studied under Milton Friedman and Gary Becker at Chicago, where he did graduate work in economics. The reporters asked him if he would consider signing up for the Free State Project, and he said he would, though he was committed to working in Vermont. So I gave him a form, and he signed up on tape, opting out of all states except Vermont. I asked him how much of the state legislature was already libertarian. He estimated that matters were better now than they were a few years ago, and that a third of the house (50 members) were friendly to our ideas. I have a feeling this includes a lot of conservatives, and maybe some iconoclastic liberals. He said there were 25-30 real socialists in the house, and of the 50 who support us, 15 were true libertarians through and through. So that's 10% of the state house that we would “have” right away when we move in.

Some things I noticed from all the conversations I've had this weekend are: 1) A good way to introduce the Free State Project is to say that we are researching states based on their favorability to ideas of smaller government and more individual freedom, for the purpose of promoting one state as the best place for Americans with such ideas to settle and live. This way it sounds less like a hostile takeover, which it really isn't, in my view. 2) Vermonters value independence and non-conformity, and evaluate candidates more on personal characteristics than ideology. 3) You don't need a lot of political experience to win state house seats. Nevertheless, political liberals seemed to have a lot more experience than political conservatives. They are more willing to serve on boards and commissions and make a career out of politics. 4) There aren't many native Vermonters left, at least in Burlington! I think we met only two native Vermonters out of all the people we spoke to. A couple people mentioned that most of the state legislative seats are occupied by non-natives. Whether you are a native or not doesn't have much relevance for political success. 5) Ideological polarization lies beneath the surface in Vermont, though people are quick to deny it. The mayor of Burlington claimed that it was an “urban myth” to think that there was a coordinated attempt by leftists to take over Vermont in the 1970s. Conservatives insist that there was, and Robert Maynard mentioned a few stories and episodes that suggest to me that there was such a coordinated attempt, though more loosely organized than the FSP. Overall, this issue is a very touchy one in Vermont. 6) Vermonters are proud of their heritage of town government, even though state government has increasingly taken functions away from local government. Decentralization could be a major winning issue for a libertarian movement in Vermont. 7) It's cold! I like it, though. There was a good bit of snow on the ground, perhaps a foot in some places, and it snowed gently most of the time I was there. The winter could wear on some people, but complaining about the weather is looked down upon in Vermont. There was one facetious suggestion that to keep out riff-raff, the highways should not be plowed.

It was a productive and fascinating journey. I wish I could do a tour of this kind in all the states we're considering.

Ethics of Secession

“…Despite the rhetoric of liberal democracy, actual consent is not necessary to political legitimacy…Separatists cannot base their arguments on a right to opt out because no such right exists in democratic theory.

Government by the consent of the governed does not necessarily encompass a right to opt out. It only requires that within the existing political unit a right to participate through electoral processes be available. Moreover participatory rights do not entail a right to secede….”

Lea Brilmayer (1991) Secession and self-determination: a territorial interpretation. Yale Journal of International Law 16, 177-202, p.184-185.

Quoted from “The Ethics of Secession.”

http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/secession.html

Voice Cloning

Demo:

http://www.naturalvoices.att.com/demos/

I dunno–still sounds pretty tinny to me.

http://www.rense.com/general12/ld.htm

Voice Cloning – Software
Recreates Voices Of Living & Dead
By Lisa Guernsey
New York Times
8-1-1

AT&T Labs will start selling speech software that it says is so good at reproducing the sounds, inflections and intonations of a human voice that it can re-create voices and even bring the voices of long-dead celebrities back to life.

The software, which turns printed text into synthesized speech, makes it possible for a company to use recordings of a person's voice to utter new things that the person never said.

The software, called Natural Voices, is not flawless — its utterances still contain a few robotic tones and unnatural inflections — and competitors question whether the software is a substantial step up from existing products. But some of those who have tested the technology say it is the first text-to-speech software to raise the specter of voice cloning, replicating a person's voice so perfectly that the human ear cannot tell the difference.

“If ABC wanted to use Regis Philbin's voice for all of its automated customer-service calls, it could,'' said Lawrence R. Rabiner, vice president for AT&T Labs Research.

Potential customers for the software, which is priced in the thousands of dollars, include telephone call centers, companies that make software that reads digital files aloud and makers of automated voice devices.

James R. Fruchterman, the chief executive of Benetech, a non-profit organization that uses technology in social-service projects, tested the software along with a dozen people who evaluate technology for blind people, and they said they were impressed.

“Natural Voices gets into the gray area,'' he said, “where there is plausible deniability that it is a machine.''

Rabiner said he is excited about the possibility of resurrecting renowned voices, like that of Harry Caray, the Chicago Cubs announcer who delivered rousing play-by-play broadcasts. “There are probably hours of recordings in archives,'' he said. Wouldn't it be great, he asked, if Harry Caray's voice could once again be broadcasting in Wrigley Field?

Ownership issues

The technology raises several questions. Who, for example, owns the rights to a celebrity's voice? Rabiner predicted that new contracts will be drawn that include voice-licensing clauses.

With computer-generated characters already appearing in place of real ones in some movies, will computer-synthesized voices compete with those of live actors as well?

And although scientists say the technology is not yet good enough to perpetrate fraud, synthesized voices may eventually be capable of tricking people into thinking that they were getting phone calls from people they know.

For now, technical limitations may temper any worries that a person's voice could be lifted without permission.

To build the software that re-creates unique voices — which AT&T Labs is calling its “custom voice'' product — a person must first go to a studio where engineers record 10 hours to 40 hours of readings. Texts range from business news reports to nonsense babble. The recordings are then chopped into fragments of sounds and sorted into databases. When the software processes a text, it retrieves the sounds and re-assembles them to form new sentences.

Gains in synthetic speech

In the case of long-dead celebrities, archival recordings could be used in the same way.

Other companies and research centers, like IBM Research and Lernout and Hauspie, are also experimenting with this technique — which is called concatenative speech synthesis — to improve the quality of text-to-speech software. It is a big step up, engineers say, from the speech engines that were built from whole words that had been pre-recorded. And it is also a vast improvement, some say, from the entirely computer-generated and therefore robotic sounds that are used in many versions of text-to-speech software on the market today.

Now aided by the declining cost and increasing speed of microprocessors, far smoother sentences are possible, Rabiner said. He said that the speech team at AT&T Labs, led by Juergen Schroeter, an expert in speech synthesis, had created a more refined form of the concatenative technique by breaking a person's voice into “the smallest number of units possible.''

A demonstration of the technology will be available on the Web beginning today at www.naturalvoices.att.com, said Michael Dickman, a spokesman for AT&T Labs.

Still, many engineers are skeptical of claims of a completely simulated voice that is almost indistinguishable from that of a human.

Now the pressure is on to perfect the technology. Analysts at McKinsey & Co. have predicted that the market for text-to-speech software will reach more than $1 billion in the next five years. In addition to customers like call centers and manufacturers of automated voice systems, the software could also be used by publishers of video games and books-on-tape and automobile manufacturers whose cars are equipped with software that gives driving directions. In the near future, engineers have said they expect people will want high-end speech technology that enables them to interact at length with their cell phones and Palm organizers, instead of typing on and squintingat a tiny screen.