Michael Parkes
28-Oct-01
Michael Parkes creates beautiful magical realist paintings. Here's one of his most famous:
Meyers Briggs
28-Oct-01
Skeptics Dictionary entry for the Meyers Briggs personality test. As an INT(P/J), I find this article appealing…:>
The biology of "irrational exuberance"
24-Oct-01
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/296/science/The_biology_of_irrational_exuberance_P.shtml
The biology of 'irrational exuberance'
Research finds body responds to market swings
By Gareth Cook, Globe Staff, 10/23/2001
When Alan Greenspan coined the phrase ''irrational exuberance,'' he
was cautiously telling America that investors had begun to create a
stock-market bubble. He was right.
Now it looks like he might have been onto some serious science as
well.
In a yearlong study at a major Boston financial company, researchers
from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Boston University
found that professional currency traders react to changing markets not
just with their brains, but also subconsciously – with their whole
bodies. As they sit at their desks moving millions of dollars through
the financial system, their vital signs react almost instantaneously
as prices dip and rise.
They are, in other words, wired to the market.
Like bond traders and stockbrokers, foreign-currency traders are paid
to act rationally – to ignore the waves of emotion that consume
amateur investors. Yet all of the currency traders in the new study
showed a clear physiological response to what the markets did,
experiencing powerful surges – jumps in blood flow, sweating – with
every rally and reverse. A strong emotional reaction was clear in
regions far from the rational mind.
The research, conducted by an MIT economics researcher and a
neuroscientist at BU, adds momentum to a growing revolt against
classical economic theories, which assume people will always make
decisions by thinking and acting rationally.
A growing group of economists has been arguing that financial markets
do not always behave in a rational way. They go through panicky
stock-market selloffs or dramatic spikes that cannot be easily
explained by reasoned behavior.
A better model, the new study's authors believe, will develop when
economics can find a place for the irrational quirks of human
nature. And their paper, accepted for publication in the Journal of
Cognitive Neuroscience, is the first such study done outside a
laboratory, opening up a new kind of research into how people actually
make decisions and respond to risk.
''This is an important paper,'' said Hersh Shefrin, a professor of
finance at Santa Clara University. ''These are real traders in
real-life settings.''
The researchers wired traders with equipment that measures their heart
rate and perspiration, and compared the results to a chart of the
day's ups and downs. They did not, however, match the traders'
reactions with the decisions they actually made. In other words, the
study showed how their bodies reacted, but not what their brains told
them to do.
But the researchers did find something surprising: After watching the
results, they could gauge traders' experience level solely by how
their bodies behaved as they worked. Novice traders reacted
strongly. Experienced ones displayed a more even keel.
''What most surprised us was the ability to distinguish experienced
traders from less experienced ones,'' said Andrew Lo, co-author of the
study and director of MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering at
the MIT Sloan School of Management.
That finding eventually could have some practical uses in the
financial world. MIT is about to file a patent on the technique, which
Lo said he hoped to refine so that banks could use it to screen job
applicants – and perhaps, if scientists discover how the emotions
affect decisions, to train and even monitor their traders.
Analysts said the research is not yet practical enough to be of any
use to financial institutions. How people perceive risk is a vital
area, though, for companies that invest other people's money,
according to Arnold Wood, president and chief executive officer of
Martingale Asset Management in Boston. If there were a better way to
assess how much risk investors were willing to take on, it would be
easier to construct investment portfolios tailored to their needs.
To Lo, however, it's the broader implications that drove him to the
work.
''I was led to this research by force,'' Lo said, ''because the
standard paradigms we use in economics and finance have not
progressed.''
Classic economics assumes that people are rational and greedy, always
making choices that will bring them the most expected incomes. From
this assumption, economists have then been able to build elaborate,
mathematically precise theories.
''At one level, the logic of economics is so rigorous, but it is built
on a foundation of folk psychology that we would mock in other
fields,'' said Terry Burnham, a visiting assistant professor at the
Harvard Business School.
In the last two decades, a growing body of critics have been
cataloguing the many ways that the classical view of ''homo
economicus'' fails. Economists have observed, for instance, that a
person will usually feel better off if he receives a raise – but can
feel worse off if he is given a raise while a co-worker receives a
larger raise.
Economists say this research, called behavioral economics or
behavioral finance, has succeeded in proving that classical economics
has flaws, but has failed to offer a viable alternative, causing some
researchers to look for a new foundation, perhaps in biology.
To investigate the role of emotions in economic activity, Lo teamed up
with Dmitry Repin, a neuroscientist at Boston University who made the
research a part of his doctoral thesis. The two then approached what
they describe as ''a major global financial institution'' – which
participated on the condition of anonymity – about enlisting traders
in currencies and interest-rate derivatives in the test.
Working last year, the team outfitted 10 employees with equipment that
measures data – such as pulse rate, skin conductance, and respiration
rate – that researchers know is closely related to emotion. The data
only indicate when someone is having an emotional response, Repin
said, not what emotion they are experiencing.
The traders were then allowed to work as they normally would, and the
team recorded their responses while tracking ''market events,'' such
as a sudden bump in price. All of the traders responded emotionally to
the market events.
Lo said that he has been amazed at how strong an emotional link
traders form with the market – and how clearly experience can change
their response. He said he was demonstrating the equipment to a class
when he saw one student exhibit the distinctive pattern of a more
experienced trader. It turned out the student had traded bonds for
several years.
It was as if her emotional circuitry, he said, had been permanently
changed.
This story ran on page C1 of the Boston Globe on 10/23/2001. �
Copyright 2001 Globe Newspaper Company.
Regret
23-Oct-01
The 2002 Demotivators are out.
If you're in the Bay Area, P.J. O'Rourke will be giving a lecture and reading excerpts from his book “CEO of the Sofa” at the Stanford Bookstore, at 7:00 p.m. tomorrow.
A time-consuming and tricky chore….
22-Oct-01
http://www.mamaraga.com/id29.htm
“….This electronic tool dates back to the turn of the century, the
oldest mass-marketed model being manufactured by the Weiss Instrument
Manufacturing Company in the 1890's. It predated both the vacuum
cleaner and the iron by a decade and was preceded only by the fan,
teakettle and toaster. The tool consisted of a simple electrical
motor with a handle of wood or Bakelite, and the entire contraption
generally weighed between 5 and 15 pounds, and sold for $5 to $20 (for
the model in the velvet lined box with brass fittings). It was
marketed in women's magazines between ads for Ivory soap and
emmenagogue (abortion-inducing herbs) – and the ads generally showed
women pulling down their dresses and applying this tool to their necks
and shoulders and promised that the effect would be “thrilling”,
“invigorating” and “all the penetrating pleasures of youth will throb
in you again”.
Yes, you guessed it, the vibrator – a “musculo-skeletal relaxation
device” that was used by Victorian doctors to masturbate their
patients to health. This device was not intended to relieve those
pesky shoulder spasms, but to treat a condition that doctors believed
arose from failure to achieve orgasm. “Hysteria” today generally
indicates an outbreak of wild, uncontrolled excitement or feeling,
such as a fit of crying or laughing; but prior to the 1920's, the term
more specifically referred to “womb disease”. Doctors have observed,
since the beginning of recorded medical history, that women, unlike
men, did not often release fluids during sex. These pent-up fluids
became “trapped in the womb” and were blamed for all sorts of
problems: headaches, irritability, fear of impending insanity,
hysteria. The medical profession used this same scientific insight to
develop a cure: doctors and midwives would massage the genitals to
“hysterical paroxysm”, the scientific term for orgasm. By the end of
the 19th century, some doctors were advising treatment as often as
once a week.
However, the task of bringing women to orgasm was considered a
time-consuming and tricky chore, one that one physician likened to
“rubbing one's head and stomach simultaneously”. To relieve the
duties of these overworked doctors, a British physician developed the
“perceteur”, the prototype of the device that would soon be marketed
to housewives everywhere. This seems to be in contradiction to our
normal view of Victorian times, didn't these doctors know what they
were doing? However, “real sex”, as still defined by those in the
White House, was considered to be actual penetration by the male
organ. If there was no penetration, there was no sex. (Now this
brings to mind speculation about the real nature of those “romantic
friendships” between these same Victorian ladies, but we will leave
that to another article…)
During the last two decades of the 19th century, more than 50 types of
vibrators were invented – some combined vibration with music, while
others used ultraviolet rays. Of course, the device really took off
in the late 1880's with the advent of electrical power. Before that,
batteries just had not been effective – they could not deliver enough
juice, and they were likely to give out before the job was finished.
So of course, once rural America was electrified, all sorts of
appliances quickly found their way to market. Sears & Roebuck even
put together a housewife's dream: a single motor that could mix, beat,
grind, fan, and of course – vibrate. One model ($5) was advertised
with “Six Feet of Cord” and “Perfect for Weekend Trips.” The most
advertised model was manufactured by White Cross, and the effects were
toted as being “wonderfully refreshing” and as effective as the
treatments that cost “at least $2 each in a physician's office.” Over
a dozen manufacturers were in the vibrator business by the 1920's,
including such domestic stalwarts as Hamilton Beach and General
Electric.
It is no surprise that doctors tried to warn patients away from these
questionable home remedies. The discrete home models were mere
trinkets compared to the models found in doctor's offices, which were
expensive, heavy, large, and difficult to operate. One model, named
the Chattanooga, sold for over $200, and resembled a large Tommy gun
that was dragged along the body. Another model, called the Carpenter,
hung from the ceiling and was just barely distinguishable from an
impact wrench…..”
Text above from:
The Herstory of One of Our Favorite Mass-Marketed Appliances or: We've Come a Long Way Baby (or have we?) By Mary A.
http://www.mamaraga.com/id29.htm
MOTHER'S LITTLE HELPER
Lingua Franca review of “The Technology of Orgasm” by Rachel Maines
http://www.linguafranca.com/9811/fn.html
Pictures! We got pictures! (More pictures from Good Vibrations)
http://www.goodvibes.com/cgi-bin/sgdynamo.exe?CODIV=0102&UID=2001101910091515&HTNAME=museum/1869.html
Chapter 1 from the “Technology of Orgasm”
http://www.press.jhu.edu/press/books/titles/sampler/maines.htm
U.S. Government Contemplates Torture
22-Oct-01
Silence of 4 Terror Probe Suspects Poses Dilemma
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/nation/specials/attacked/A27748-2001Oct20.html
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 21, 2001; Page A06
FBI and Justice Department investigators are increasingly frustrated by the silence of jailed suspected associates of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network, and some are beginning to that say that traditional civil liberties may have to be cast aside if they are to extract information about the Sept. 11 attacks and terrorist plans.
More than 150 people rounded up by law enforcement officials in the aftermath of the attacks remain in custody, but attention has focused on four suspects held in New York who the FBI believes are withholding valuable information.
FBI agents have offered the suspects the prospect of lighter sentences, money, jobs, and a new identity and life in the United States for them and their family members, but they have not succeeded in getting information from them, according to law enforcement sources.
“We're into this thing for 35 days and nobody is talking,” a senior FBI official said, adding that “frustration has begun to appear.”
Said one experienced FBI agent involved in the investigation: “We are known for humanitarian treatment, so basically we are stuck. . . . Usually there is some incentive, some angle to play, what you can do for them. But it could get to that spot where we could go to pressure . . . where we won't have a choice, and we are probably getting there.”
Among the alternative strategies under discussion are using drugs or pressure tactics, such as those employed occasionally by Israeli interrogators, to extract information. Another idea is extraditing the suspects to allied countries where security services sometimes employ threats to family members or resort to torture.
Under U.S. law, interrogators in criminal cases can lie to suspects, but information obtained by physical pressure, inhumane treatment or torture cannot be used in a trial. In addition, the government interrogators who used such tactics could be sued by the victim or charged with battery by the government.
The four key suspects, held in New York's Metropolitan Correctional Center, are Zacarias Moussaoui, a French Moroccan detained in August initially in Minnesota after he sought lessons on how to fly commercial jetliners but not how to take off or land them; Mohammed Jaweed Azmath and Ayub Ali Khan, Indians traveling with false passports who were detained the day after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks with box cutters, hair dye and $5,000 in cash; and Nabil Almarabh, a former Boston cabdriver with alleged links to al Qaeda.
Questioning of “the two with the box cutters and others have left us wondering what's the next phase,” the FBI official said.
One former senior FBI official with a background in counterterrorism said recently, “You can't torture, you can't give drugs now, and there is logic, reason and humanity to back that.” But, he added, “you could reach a point where they allow us to apply drugs to a guy. . . . But I don't think this country would ever permit torture, or beatings.”
He said there was a difference in employing a “truth serum,” such as sodium pentothal, “to try to get critical information when facing disaster, and beating a guy till he is senseless.”
“If there is another major attack on U.S. soil, the American public could let it happen,” he said. “Drugs might taint a prosecution, but it might be worth it.”
Even some people who are firm supporters of civil liberties understand the pressures that are developing.
David Cole, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center who obtained the release of Middle Eastern clients after they had been detained for years based on secret information, said that in the current crisis, “the use of force to extract information could happen” in cases where investigators believe suspects have information on an upcoming attack.
“If there is a ticking bomb, it is not an easy issue, it's tough,” he said.
Kenneth W. Starr, the independent counsel during the Clinton administration, wrote recently that the Supreme Court distinguished terrorism cases from cases where lesser threats are involved. He noted that five justices in a recent deportation case recognized that the “genuine danger” represented by terrorism requires “heightened deference to the judgments of the political branches with respect to matters of national security.”
Former attorney general Richard L. Thornburgh said, “We put emphasis on due process and sometimes it strangles us.”
In the aftermath of Sept. 11, he said, “legally admissible evidence in court may not be the be-all and end-all.” The country may compare the current search for information to brutal tactics in wartime used to gather intelligence overseas and even by U.S. troops from prisoners during military actions.
Extradition of Moussaoui to France or Morocco is a possibility, one law enforcement official said. The French security services were quick to leak to journalists in Paris that they had warned the CIA and FBI in early September, before the attacks, that Moussaoui was associated with al Qaeda and had pilot training.
The leak has irritated U.S. investigators in part because “it was so limited,” one FBI official said. “Maybe we should give him [Moussaoui] to them,” he said, noting that French security has a reputation for rough interrogations.
The threat of extradition to a country with harsh practices does not always work.
In 1997, Hani Abdel Rahim al-Sayegh, a Saudi citizen arrested in Canada and transferred to the United States under the promise that he would tell about the bombing of the Khobar Towers military barracks in Saudi Arabia, refused to cooperate in the investigation when he got here.
The FBI threatened to have al-Sayegh sent back to Saudi Arabia, where he could have faced beheading, thinking it would get him to talk. “He called their bluff and went back, was not executed and is in jail,” a government official said.
Robert M. Blitzer, former chief of the FBI counterterrorism section, said offers of reduced sentences worked to get testimony in the cases of Ahmed Ressam, caught bringing explosives into the country for millennium attacks that never took place, and Ali Mohammed, the former U.S. Army Green Beret who pleaded guilty in the 1998 embassy bombings and provided valuable information about al Qaeda.
The two former al Qaeda members who testified publicly in the 1998 bombing trials were resettled with their families in the United States under the witness protection program and given either money or loans to restart their lives.
Torture “goes against every grain in my body,” Blitzer said. “Chances are you are going to get the wrong person and risk damage or killing them.” In the end, he said, there has to be another way.
� 2001 The Washington Post Company
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High School Flashback
18-Oct-01
When I was in high school, I had a crush on Samantha Marshall. She was smart, funny, ambitious. Not only that, she was beautiful–she had jet black hair to her waist, a pert nose, and a slim figure. I sat behind her in my Spanish class.
Unfortunately, she was a year older than me. I was a gawky junior, terribly shy and self-conscious.
One of our assignments was to write a humorous story in Spanish and read it to the class.
My turn came up. I sat on a high stool, facing the class. I began reading the story.
Lo and behold, they loved it! As I read the story, more and more smiles appeared on everyone's faces. Kids who didn't normally pay attention, sat up, enraptured. Samantha, who sat near the front row, laid her head down on her desk, muffling her giggles. Only Mr. Kytle seemed oddly distressed.
My confidence building, I read the story with increasing flourish. As I neared the end of the story, some of the ink was smudged, so I lifted the paper closer to my face.
It was then that I noticed that my pants had a 4 inch split from crotch to bottom. My legs akimbo, I had been flashing the entire class with my Fruit of the Looms for the past 5 minutes.
Mortified, I slunk back to my desk as the class laughed uproariously.
Despite my faux pas, Samantha, impressed by my poise, sat by me at lunch. We become so engrossed in conversation that we missed our post lunch classes. Thus began a steamy, passionate affair that lasted….
Oh, that last paragraph's a lie. Sadly, Samantha graduated before I overcame my shyness. I think she was only vaguely aware of me, as we shared only that Spanish class together. Last I heard, she's now a doctor somewhere.
Thankfully, I'm not so shy anymore. But I still haven't lost my touch for bumbling dramatically in front of women I'm trying to impress.
Brewer twins…
17-Oct-01
My friends “Jason” and “Sam” have been happily “married” couple for over 15 years. However, like most men, they still enjoy looking at a variety of scantily clad/naked bodies. This is one of Jason's favorite G-rated “hot man” photos. Enjoy!
Yet another example of the use of war as excuse to expand state power. If it becomes law, I expect that it will facilitate the adoption of alternative currencies such as e-gold and
goldmoney.
http://www.wired.com/news/conflict/0,2100,47518,00.html
Terror Bill Limits Gambling, Too By Declan McCullagh ([email protected]) 2:00 a.m. Oct. 12, 2001 PDT
WASHINGTON — Osama bin Laden is not, according to news reports, a terribly big fan of Western vices.
Nor has there been any reliable confirmation that last month's suicide-hijackers, who completed the bloodiest terrorist attack in American history, were habitual gamblers.
But that didn't stop the House Financial Services committee from voting 62-1 on Thursday for an “anti-terrorism” bill that limits Internet gambling.
In the words of Rep. Marge Roukema (R-New Jersey): “We've heard testimony from the FBI, the Department of Justice, and law enforcement that there is a clean nexus, a connection, between Internet gambling and money laundering of terrorism activities.”
The measure has been dubbed the “Financial Anti-Terrorism Act” (PDF), and it prohibits financial institutions from accepting credit cards, electronic transfers and checks used in online gambling. Another part of the 121-page bill gives the Customs Service more power to inspect
packages sent through the mail.